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Reds vs Padres Pick MLB – July 30th

Let the clamoring for instant replay commence! (Or “re-commence” more accurately). I cannot imagine the insane frustration anyone who bet on the Sox last night must feel after one of the worst blown calls on a home plate tag I’ve seen in a while gave a victory to the Tampa Bay Rays, 2-1. Yes, the run would have only tied the game, but calling an obviously safe runner OUT essentially sealed the deal for the Rays and launched them into first place. Could this call be the division-deciding moment that finally catapults MLB into the 21st century along with EVERY other major professional sport in North America??

Meanwhile, the Cardinals free-fall continued last night, getting blitzed by the Pirates and seeing their NL Central lead shrink to just a half game. It may sound hyperbolic, but today’s doubleheader might be the biggest day of baseball in Pittsburgh since Bobby Bonila and Barry Bonds were patrolling Three Rivers…

It’s a great day of baseball, so let’s try to build to yesterday’s winning pick by cashing in another winner.

Cincinnati Reds -150 at San Diego Padres +140 (Total: 7)

Mat Latos vs. Edinson Volquez

The Reds took a gut punch loss last night when Aroldis Chapman gave up a two-run walkoff homerun to former Red Chris Denorfia. The 2-1 loss was the Reds fourth straight, and the second straight in walk-off fashion. Tonight they will try to rebound behind the ace of their staff, Mat Latos.

Opposing him is another former Red (half the Padres are former Reds, thanks to the Latos trade). Volquez made an All-Star team with Cincinnati, but has since been injured and suspended for PED’s, and the 5.70 ERA he enters tonight with is a little high, but too far off base for the pitcher he now is. I’ll expect him to be a little more motivated facing his former mates, but I don’t see him outperforming Latos tonight.

Working in Volquez favor is a seriously scuffling Reds offense. They’ve managed just one run in their last 24 innings and hitting in spacious Petco Park might not be the best place to get back on track. I see this one being a pretty low scoring affair. They’ve stayed UNDER the run total in their last five games since their offensive explosion in San Francisco. The Padres have won three games in a row; scoring 12 in the first game and then just three combined in the previous two. The latter is more their usual recipe for success.
I like this one staying low despite some of Volquez’s recent struggles. Give me the UNDER 7.

Free Pick: Run TOTAL UNDER 7