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Reds vs. Yankees MLB Pick (Over/Under) – July 26th

The Yankees tacked on another win last night, this time against National League foe, the Cincinnati Reds, to take down their fourth win in their last five games. Since enjoying success at the top of the division, the Yankees have watched the Red Sox, and the Rays for a minute, surpass them in the AL East. The Rays are now in 3rd, while the Yanks are 1.5 games back of the Red Sox. The Red Sox-Yankees’ rivalry is not what it once was, I will admit, there isn’t as much fire. However, it would be great to see these two go down to the wire and make a tight race out of the AL East.

Aaron Judge is the throttle that propels the Yankees. He’s had a monster campaign thus far, but optimal phrase here, thus far. It’s only been the first-half and some change of his career. In any event, he has all of the tools to be a long-time performer. Derek Jeter leaves, and maybe the next Yankees’ legend is right behind? Time will tell, but it’s been aces for him in the Bronx, offensively and defensively. Judge has already belted 32 long balls with 73 RBIs. He isn’t all flash, though, as he is a solid contact hitter, with a .310 BA.

The Reds would love to find a young superstar to rejuvenate their franchise. I think more than an offensive star, though, they’d rather have a star pitcher. The pitching has been weak at best and is really holding them down. Homer Bailey should no longer be pitching in a starting rotation, but thanks to the anemic rotation in Cincinnati, Bailey still has a job. Bailey has surpassed the 5.00 ERA mark in each of his last two years and is on pace to do it yet again. He will have to battle this afternoon against Luis Severino who is etching out a name for himself in 2017. Find our free Reds vs. Yankees pick below.

Cincinnati Reds vs. N.Y. Yankees Pick

Homer Bailey (2-4, 8.56 ERA) vs. Luis Severino (6-4, 3.21 ERA)

Bailey watched his ERA blow up to 5.56 in 2015 and he’s never been the same since. Not that he’s ever been elite, but we’ve seen his numbers dip below 4.00 eleven-year career. He continued to regress in 2016, posting a 6.65 ERA, and now he’s hitting a wall. Bailey enters Wednesday with an ERA of 8.56 and gaudy 2.05 WHIP.

When you’re allowing just over an average of 2 base runners per game, you are in trouble as a pitcher. In his last three starts, Bailey owned a 5.94 ERA and 1.86 WHIP, which I guess you might say, is an improvement? He started the year on the DL, and it appears that he’s still fighting off an injury with these kind of efforts.

Factor in their awful bullpen, and you could say they need help on their pitching staff. The Reds’ relievers as a team are 30th in the majors, with a 5.26 ERA. If you are keeping count, you’d know that is dead last in MLB. Severino has been strong in his last three and overall this season, but if there’s any place he’s hittable it’s at the wiffle ball park known as Yankee Stadium. He holds a 3.88 ERA in the Bronx, compared to a 2.71 ERA on the road. He’s allowed 8 runs in his last two starts at home, against the Angels and Brewers. I thought we’d see a total of 9.5 in this game, so it was pleasant to see 9 at a nice price. I like our Wednesday MLB pick to go OVER the total at Yankee Stadium.

PICK: OVER 9 (-105)

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