Reds vs. Yankees MLB Pick – July 26th

We grabbed a win last night with the Cardinals walking off against the Rockies in a dramatic 3-2 home victory. I was dead-on with the Cards jumping on Jon Gray early and Lance Lynn dominating, but the Cards were unable to keep the pressure on Gray and after allowing a single run in the seventh and eighth, the victory required a little extra drama.

Alas, a win is a win, so we will fly the W flag high and proud. Just like the true purveyors of the W Flag, the defending World Series Champ Cubs. Chicago continued their hot play with a blowout 9-2 win over the ChiSox, but the game was notable for the normally mild-mannered Kris Bryant losing his cool and being ejected for the first time in his career. It turned out not to matter at all, score-wise, but it was interesting to see some anger and fire out of the composed Bryant.

The Brewers also won to maintain their slim half-game lead in the Central, but the wins by Chicago and St. Louis coupled with yet another Colorado loss is making the wildcard race finally interesting. As of this morning, the Cubs are only three games back in the loss column. Maybe we will get an interesting late summer after all…

We’ve hit on four of our last five, so let’s see if we can keep the good times rolling tonight.

Today’s MLB Pick:

Cincinnati Reds +210 at New York Yankees -230 (Total: 9)
Homer Bailey (2-4, 8.56 ERA) vs. Luis Severino (6-4, 3.21 ERA)

Let’s start with one of the only things you really need to know about this game: Homer Bailey’s 8.56 ERA isn’t a typo. There’s a reason why the line is so astronomical.

But the runline is surprisingly affordable. You can get the Yankees at -1.5 at just -120, and I am ALL over it. The Reds have been dreadful since the All Star Break, dropping ten of twelve games and losing all but one of them by multiple runs, including some doozies – 12-2, 11-2, 14-4, 10-7. And Homer Bailey has been a big culprit in the calamity. He did show some signs of regaining his form with a pair of solid outings, only to regress back to the ugly in allowing eight runs in four innings to Washington. To be fair, he has three quality starts in his last four outings, but he has 20 strikeouts to 13 walks this season – even in his wins he isn’t missing enough bats.

Meanwhile, Severino is having no such problems. He is fifth in the American League in strikeouts, sixth in WHIP and sixth in ERA. He has delivered three straight quality starts and has struck out 41 batters in his last five starts.

I like the Yankees to jump all over the Reds. Again, the Reds have lost on the runline in nine of their last ten losses and nine of twelve games overall. Add in the pitching discrepancy and the fact the game is in Yankee Stadium? Easy pick.

Today’s MLB Pick: NEW YORK YANKEES RUNLINE -1.5 (-120)

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