Rockies vs. Cardinals Pick MLB – May 18th

We took the MLB loss last night with the Brewers surprising the Cubs with a 4-2 victory.  But in my defense, did YOU have Chase Anderson and his plus-six ERA taking a no-no into the eighth inning against the best offense in baseball??  Yeah.  That’s what I thought ;)

Baseball, right?  You look for an edge statistically and you use data to your advantage.  Normally you come out slightly better than you would have otherwise.  We had a nice little 4-1 run going with a runline winner and nice underdog play sprinkled in the mix, and then a dude who has been a tomato can in 2016 nearly no-hits the 27’ Yankees.  Que cera!

Let’s see if we can pick it back up today and avoid any more random anomalies.

One thing that was NOT an anomaly yesterday was the pitching in New York.  Noah Syndergaard brought the Hammer of God with him in a 2-0 dominant outing, defeating a game Max Scherzer who struck out ten batters and only allowed two runs.  But once again, the long ball victimized Scherzer, who only allowed three hits, but two of them left the yard.  It is all adding up to one of more confounding stat lines in all of baseball.  Scherzer has been DOMINANT.  Yet has an ERA of four.  Huh?

Oh, and in less-than-great NL baseball news, the Reds allowed 29 runs in their series in Cleveland.  And it was only TWO GAMES.  Their bullpen ERA is now resting at 6.46 – still close to TWO RUNS worse than anyone in baseball…

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Today’s Free Pick:

Colorado Rockies +155 at St. Louis Cardinals -163 (Total: 8.5)

Chris Rusin (1-1, 4.85 ERA) vs. Adam Wainwright (3-3, 6.80 ERA)

There are a few things contributing to this slightly-confusing line.  First, the Rockies are less potent when they leave the mile high air of Coors Field.  They hit .294 and average 5.5 runs at home.  They hit .261 and average 4.8 runs on the road.  So it is a pronounced difference, but perhaps not quite as stark as the general perception would lead one to believe.  They have still be an above-average offense on the road as well.  The second contributing factor is that the Cardinals are perceived as the far better team and the Rockies are throwing a guy with an ERA in the high-fours.

But the elephant in the room is the massive struggles of Adam Wainrwight.  We’ve won a few wagers fading him this season, and I am going to continue to do so until either the lines recognize his struggles or he rights the ship.  His last outing was actually his WORST of the season, allowing seven runs and eleven hits in five innings.  He has an ERA of close to seven and hasn’t been good in a single outing yet in 2016.

The Rockies are actually a game better than the Cards in the standings, so the massive line tonight is just perplexing all around.  It is driven by perception “Wainwright and the Cards at home against the smelly Rockies??  Free Money!” rather than by the data, “the team with the better record and better starting pitcher is getting 3:2 money tonight??  Steal!”

The Cards could very well win, but the VALUE is overwhelmingly on the side of the Rockies tonight.  I’ll take the he plus money and bank on Wainwright’s ninth start being like the previous eight.

Free Pick: Colorado Rockies to WIN +155

Chris Scheeren / Author