Robinson Cano’s return to the Bronx was indeed a happy one. It was a happy one for us too, as the Mariners notched a 6-3 win as a huge underdog giving us a nice +175 payday, and a 2-0 day overall including the NBA winner. I like days like that, but I’m not getting greedy and jumping on another huge underdog tonight. You have to wait until a good opportunity avails, and then take advantage of it – I have a funny feeling we aren’t going to get many games where C.C. Sabathia is a -180ish favorite many more times this season unless things radically change…
In the meantime, weather continues to wreak havoc on the baseball schedule with a few more games postponed yesterday and a few games like the Cincinnati and Chicago game, stretched into five hour affairs. Hopefully tonight will be a little cleaner, and more importantly, hopefully we can build on yesterday’s nice underdog winner and stack a few more in the plus column tonight.
Tonight’s Free Picks:
Colorado Rockies +107 at Arizona Diamondbacks -117 (Total: 8.5)
Jordan Lyles (3-0, 2.93 ERA) vs. Josh Collmenter (1-2, 3.38 ERA)
I kept staring at this one to make sure it wasn’t a typo. You are going to give me plus-money to bet against the D’Backs? Sold. Arizona enters tonight a league-worst 8-22 and a stunningly bad 2-15 at home. Eventually their home record will start to come back a little closer to a reasonable losing record, but why lay odds to bank on them figuring it out tonight against a Rockies offense that is tallying nearly five and a half runs a night?
In addition to the Rockies potent offense, they have been getting decent starting pitching as well, especially from Jordan Lyles. He is a perfect 3-0 on the season, and if he can continue to keep his ERA under three, he has a shot to win 18-20 games with the lineup behind him. Let me temper that bu saying, it is not a prediction that he WILL in fact finish with an ERA under three (he never finished a season under 5 in three years with the Astros), but merely a statement of the opportunity in front of any Rockies pitcher who can keep his team in the ball game and rely on that offense to do what it does so well; score plenty of runs.
It isn’t Collmenter’s fault the D’Backs have the worst starting pitcher ERA in all of baseball at 6.32, but the fact he is the “ace” at 3.38 ERA isn’t a good sign. In fact, even that low ERA is STILL higher than the average offensive output from the sputtering D’Back offense.
I love getting plus money betting against Arizona. It’s baseball, so anything can happen, even the bad teams win about a third of their games, but the odds are definitely screaming Colorado tonight.