We hopefully get obvious value on Monday night, when the Colorado Rockies hit up AT&T Park to battle the hated San Francisco Giants. The Rockies had been holding on tightly to first place atop the NL West, but a recent slide has dropped them to third in the division.
Colorado has hit a serious wall lately, as they’ve dropped five straight, while also watching the white hot Los Angeles Dodgers skate to the top of the division via an insane 10-game winning streak. The Rockies can start to pick up the pieces tonight on the road against the Giants, who continue to keep the bottom of the division warm with a paltry 27-51 record.
The season is over for the Giants, who have been even worse than Colorado, losing five straight and 9 of their last 10. Vegas still likes the Giants here, which could provide us a sweet spot to get behind the Rockies as a fun upset play.
Colorado Rockies (+110) @ San Francisco Giants (-130) Total: 7.5
German Marquez (5-3, 3.92 ERA) vs. Jeff Samardzija (2-9, 4.74 ERA)
I love the Rockies in this spot. They’re the better team, the Giants have not been good at all in 2017 and the Rockies know they need to start winning games again. Colorado should get some help on the mound in all respects, starting with solid starter, Geman Marquez.
Marquez gets a terrific park shift away from Coors Field and has predictably fared better on the road (3.00 ERA) this year. The 22-year old righty has been very much in control lately, allowing a combined three runs over his last three starts. He does give up a good amount of contact and doesn’t have an amazing K rate, but he’s in a pitcher’s park tonight and faces a San Francisco offense that has produced the fourth lowest run total in the majors.
Adding to the allure of backing Marquez is San Francisco’s lack of pop (29th in home runs) against righties, while the Giants also rank just 28th in batting average against right-handed pitching. Brandon Belt is one guy Marquez will have to be concerned with in this matchup, but this is a great environment and overall matchup for the Rockies pitcher.
On the other side we get the Shark. Jeff Samardzija has been in strong form all year from a strikeout perspective, as the 32-year old righty has notched 8+ Ks in 7 of his last 10 outings. Shark can make batters miss, but he still serves up a ton of contact and as we can see by his record, he doesn’t get bailed out by a lackluster Giants offense too much.
Samardzija hasn’t even necessarily benefited from his home park, where we’ve still seen him go 1-4 with a weak 4.34 ERA. Samardzija has also struggled mightily against these Rockies, posting an 0-3 record with a staggering 9.33 ERA across 18 frames of work. The recent form hasn’t looked great for Shark, either, as one of San Francisco’s best arm got blasted two starts ago (8 runs) against this very Colorado lineup and has allowed 21 hits and 14 runs over his last three starts. That run has included a whopping six home runs, as well.
Shark should benefit from Colorado’s current struggles and a pitcher’s park, but we can’t deny the facts. The Rockies need a win, they’re being devalued, they have a solid arm, they have the vastly superior offense and they’ve dominated Samardzija in 2017. It all adds up to another loss for the Shark. Even if we do believe Samardzija keeps it in the park here, the Rockies offer too much value and could easily still win a pitcher’s duel in this spot. Something has to break with both teams riding nasty five-game skids. Logic suggests the Rockies are due a win here.