We grabbed our fourth straight MLB winner and a second-straight plus-money underdog last night and are looking for more this evening. Can the Colorado Rockies get to Madison Bumgarner tonight in San Francisco against the Giants?
We cashed in a big fat MLB winner at +150 last night with the Reds and their prize rookie lefty, Amit Garrett, laying waste to the Pittsburgh Pirates. The young hurler finally allowed his first runs as a professional in the seventh inning when David Freeze touched him up for a two-run oppo-shot, but by that point the game was easily put to bed with an 8-0 lead and it mattered very little. I am still surprised we got such a favorable line last night with the Reds, but I imagine that Vegas will tighten their belts a little bit now that Amir Garrett is starting to get some more press and attention. Plus, the fact that he played AAU basketball with a bunch of NBA dudes and Nigel Williams-Goss will make his story even more interesting very soon. I think he might be a star in the making, and if so, you read it here before the big guys got a hold of it…
But more importantly, WHAT TO MAKE of the Cincinnati Reds fast start? Obviously, they aren’t actually the best team in all of baseball. At this point, they have the best record in the MLB and have played six of their nine games on the road against playoff-potential teams. They have the best run differential in the National League at +25, lead the league in ERA and fewest runs allowed and have gotten amazing work from a bullpen that in 2016 was as BAD as any non-Rockies staff in nearly a decade. They are hitting like crazy, despite the only PROVEN hitter on the team, Joey Votto, slumping and nearly every Vegas book had them around 70 wins projected.
So real, or early mirage? This weekend series against Milwaukee, their first against a team they are SUPPOSED to beat, will be interesting, especially with Bronson Arroyo getting the ball. Either way, it is worth watching, as to this point they are still getting a lot of plus-money lines.
Today’s MLB Pick:
Colorado Rockies +155 vs. San Francisco Giants -160 (Total: 6.5)
Jon Gray vs. Madison Bumgarner
I get it. You love Madison Bumgarner. I do to. Dude is entertaining and awesome and hilarious and clutch and can drink six beers at one time using only his ridiculously massive hands. If I were not a grown adult, I’d probably buy a MadBum jersey and wear it around town.
But there is a bit of mythology that creeps in to the picture here that overshadows some facts. He has been a very good pitcher, and possibly the best postseason pitcher in MLB history. But during the last five regular seasons, he hasn’t even been a realistic Cy Young candidate. His career regular season numbers are very good but not Kershaw-like. He is about a 16-12 pitcher with a 2.90 ERA. Good stuff. Not mythically amazing.
He is off to about the exact same start this year. No wins and an ERA of 3.00. He is tough to beat, sure. Unbeatable? Nope.
Jon Gray is off to a rough start after entering with huge expectations. He has dodged losses but his ERA is close to six. He is just getting a lot more run support. Will he get it tonight? Maybe, maybe not. But to make the Rockies a massive underdog with a good pitcher on the mound and a sputtering Giants offense opens the door for some greedy opportunity.
I’ll roll the dice on the Rockies tonight. They have not hit MadBum well as a team historically (same 2.99 ERA – dude is consistent, right?) but CarGo has knocked five homeruns against him, making that matchup a must-see tonight.
Today’s Pick: COLORADO ROCKIES to WIN +155