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Rockies vs. Giants Pick MLB – August 25th

It was a tough weekend for the bookend teams in the American League East. The division leading Orioles went to Chicago where the Cubs handed them an inexplicable sweep. The O’s still have plenty of breathing room in the division, but it is another reminder that the American League is completely up for grabs. In the cellar, things were a little less unexplainable; the Red Sox spiral (we’ve seen this act before) deepened with a miserable performance against Seattle leading to them being swept in Fenway by the Mariners for the first time since… EVER. “When’s the Patriots opener?” is now the official Boston sports motto…

It was a lousy weekend for me too, as I was unable to notch a winner over the weekend. Let’s start off the new week on a better note and grab a Monday win.

Today’s Free Pick:

Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants (Total: 7.5)

Tyler Matzek (2-9, 5.38 ERA) vs. Jake Peavy (2-3, 3.58 ERA)

The Giants appear to have stabilized a little bit, or least flattened out their nosedive while a bunch of other NL contenders stumbled. As a result, they are still narrowly holding on to a one game lead for the final wildcard spot. They can ill-afford to NOT take advantage of hosting one of the worst road teams for a three game set.

They’ll have a good opportunity to score some runs tonight with Tyler Matzek on the mound. He is 0-4 with a 7.87 ERA in four starts this month. Tonight is his first start ever against the Giants, so at least they haven’t seen him before, but I’m not sure it is enough to lead to a dramatic departure from his previous results.

Tonight’s starting pitchers have combined for a total of 21 losses this season and just 5 wins. That’s not good. While the Giants Jake Peavy has pitched reasonably well since the trade, it’s hard to stake a wager on him at a pretty healthy favorite stats tonight. I’d lean Giants, but I think the value is on some runs crossing the plate tonight. I don’t see either starter dominating, and can particularly see the Giants piling up some runs on Matzek.

The last four games between these two teams in San Fran have gone over the total, three of them over by a wide margin. And tonight’s pitching matchup doesn’t exactly feature a pair of aces on top of their games. I’ll take the OVER tonight and look for some fireworks.

Free Pick: Run TOTAL OVER 7.5