We took the loss last night, snapping a nice little run of four days with winners (one day split picks). The Reds and Cardinals bats finally went cold so we were unable to cash a third straight winner on the OVER, but the game hurt the Cards far more. Their 2-1 loss dropped them 2 ½ games behind the Mets for the top wildcard spot and, thanks to yet another bad loss by the Giants, kept them a full game behind the Giants. The Cards wrap up tonight with the Reds and will face a solid pitcher in Dan Strailly, while Johnny Cueto will attempt to bounce back from a minor injury to beat the Rockies and the Mets get a day off before their final series starts tomorrow.
It’s a big night of baseball, so let’s get to the action.
Today’s Free Pick:
Colorado Rockies +180 at San Francisco Giants -190 (Total: 7)
Jon Gray (10-9, 4.54 ERA) vs. Johnny Cueto (17-5, 2.79 ERA)
Johnny Cueto took a turn off in the rotation, but if her returns in the form he left, it could be a very good night for the Giants. Cueto has delivered a quality start in seven of his last eight outings and the Giants have covered the run line in each of his last three starts as he has surrendered only four runs in over 18 innings pitched. The Rockies can hit, but tonight is in AT&T Park, not Coors, so some of the daunting nature of their quality lineup is slightly lessened.
Opposing Cueto is Jon Gray, whose numbers aren’t great, but given his home ballpark, he is about where he should be. But oddly, the road hasn’t been kind to him. The Rockies have lost each of his last four road starts by more than a run and he has allowed 17 runs in just 18 innings. Add in the fact that this game is DIRE to the Giants and just another last day playing out yet another futile season for the Rox, and I like San Fran to keep the runline-covering streak intact.
The only stumbling block is the potential for the Giants offense to completely vanish. They dropped an ugly one last night, 2-0 behind yet another whiff offensively. However, I just don’t see Gray having the chops to make it two nights in a row. Look for the Giants to break out a bit tonight and to also get a nice effort from Cueto. I like the Giants to cover the runline and also like the generous line at +115. I’m willing to bet the Giants offense won’t completely vanish the second straight night.
Pick: San Francisco Giants RUNLINE -1.5 (+115)