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Rockies vs. Padres Pick MLB – September 7th

Is there anything more heartbreaking in sports than a two-out, two-strike single in the bottom of the ninth to break up a perfect game??  That’s exactly what happened to 28-year old journeyman Yusmiero Petit of the Giants last night against Arizona.   He ended up getting the next batter retired to secure the one-hitter and the win, but I’m sure it was a fitful night thinking about what almost was…

Meanwhile, I split my picks last night – easily hitting my featured pick on the Rangers v. Angels OVER, and coming up short on the bonus pick.  Just one pick today – so let’s hit it and cap off a third straight winning week.

Just a reminder, with all the football today and other sporting options, many of the MLB games are at 1pm today – so make sure to check starting times on any picks.

Today’s Free Pick: (8:40pm EST)

Colorado Rockies +128 at San Diego Padres -138 (Total: 7)

Tyler Chatwood (7-4, 3.25 ERA) vs. Tyson Ross (3-7, 2.99 ERA)

You gotta feel for a guy with a 30% winning percentage and an ERA under 3.00.   It doesn’t happen often, and it takes a fantastic confluence of bad luck and terrible run support.  Yet, that is exactly the case for Tyler Ross of the Padres, who will get the ball tonight and need a good outing to keep that ERA just under the magic three mark.  His last three outings have been a little rougher, lasting just 17 innings and posting an ERA of 4.77 with a WHIP of 1.37.  Not surprisingly, he went 0-2 and the Pads were 0-3.

Opposing him tonight is Tyler Chatwood, who has been good this season, but has had a few issues himself.  It seems to be fairly standard across the board for young pitchers in September – we see it often as they hit a fatigue wall; a few mph drops off the heater and the breaking balls flatten out a bit, and ERA’s jump.   For Chatwood, it wasn’t fatigue that limited him to just 85 innings, it was an injury.  He made his return from the DL last week against the Reds, only to be removed in the third inning after a batted ball stuck his thumb.  Before leaving he had already walked three batters and surrendered two runs and four hits.  I expect him to be searching a little for his groove tonight against San Diego.

Petco is a pitcher friendly ball park, but the TOTAL of just 7 feels a little vulnerable to me.  I like that number to be eclipsed tonight.  I’d be surprised to see a Yankees/Sox like offensive explosion in the high teens, but a nice 5-3, 5-4 ball game seems in order.

The Rockies have gone OVER in 7 of their last 8 games.  Most of those are without CarGo, who is likely out tonight as well.  I like the offense to keep rolling and get some runs.

Free Pick:  Run TOTAL OVER 7