I hit a stall the past few days, dropping a pair of underdog picks in a row and snapping a pretty decent run of success with teams on the plus-money side of the line. Tonight, we will try to snap the brief losing streak and cash in with a pair of winning picks.
Today’s Free MLB Picks:
Colorado Rockies +177 at Cincinnati Reds -191 (Total: 8)
John Garland (3-6, 5.81 ERA) vs. Johnny Cueto (3-0, 2.17 ERA)
The Reds let one get away last night, giving up an eventual game-winning two run homer to Troy Tulowitski in the 8th inning. The Reds are certainly not complaining with the team’s overall performance, sitting on the third best record in MLB and playing over .600 baseball, but the loss was the third time in two weeks the Reds have blown leads in the 8th or 9th inning and gone on to lose the game. It is significant because of the blistering pace the Cardinals are setting, on pace to win over 114 games, in the NL Central. It seems crazy, but the Reds could win 100 games and have to play a one-game Wildcard Playoff…
The Reds should be able to take out some frustration from last night’s blown win on John Garland, whose 5.81 ERA doesn’t bode well heading into hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark. Meanwhile, the Reds throw Johnny Cueto who has returned from the DL and picked up righty where he left off from his last two seasons. He has quietly been one of the best pitchers in all of baseball over the past three years, with numbers that compare favorably to Matt Cain and Justin Verlander, however he gets very little media coverage.
I expect the Reds to win big tonight behind a good offensive output and solid pitching performance from Cueto. I don’t want to mess around with them at nearly -200, but I’ll take the better value of the -1.5 runline at +_115.
Free Pick: Cincinnati Reds -1.5 (+115)
New York Mets +135 at Washington Nationals -145 (Total: 7.5)
Dillon Gee (3-6, 5.68 ERA) vs. Dan Haren (4-6, 5.09 ERA)
Dan Haren has been emblematic of the Nationals troubles, as more than a few players are not living up to expectations. The result is a .500 record and some signs of doubt that this season is truly the World Series year many fans were expecting.
I expect both team t score some runs tonight, as neither starting pitcher has been particularly good this year. Haren continues to disappoint, and Gee has an ERA approaching six. Neither offense is lights-out, especially with the Nationals missing their best hitter, Bryce Harper, to the 15 day Disabled List – but I still expect both teams to tally some runs this evening.
Free Pick: Run TOTAL OVER 7.5