It’s been a forgettable run for my free MLB picks of late.
I’ve dropped each of my last seven picks in a all-time cold streak that I believe I have never endured before.
That said, here we are in the final week of the Major League Baseball season, so let’s get things turned around on tonight’s 11-game schedule!
Season Record: 20-16-1
Now let’s check out this free MLB pick featuring the Rockies vs. Giants from Oracle Park in San Fran!
Rockies vs. Giants Betting Odds
- Rockies (+107)
- Giants (-117)
- Rockies +1.5 (-190)
- Giants -1.5 (+165)
- Over 8 (-103)
- Under 8 (-117)
Rockies vs. Giants MLB Pick Breakdown
The Rockies will send right-hander German Marquez to the mound to make his 12th start of the year in this one, and it’s been a real nice season for the right-hander to this point.
Marquez enters this one sporting a 4.33 ERA on the season, but also a stellar 3.49 FIP, 3.87 xFIP and 0.79 HR/9 rate. His walks are actually up a little bit on the season with a 3.01 BB/9 that’s above his 2.46 career mark while his strikeouts are down to 8.26 K/9 from his career 9.13 mark.
Nonetheless, he’s been fairly consistent all year long. On August 20, he allowed 10 earned runs in five innings to the Astros. Two starts later, he allowed five to the D-backs. Both of those came at home while he’s allowed three earned runs or fewer in nine of his 11 starts this season.
His peripherals are actually better at home despite allowing a 5.68 ERA at hitter-friendly Coors Field this season, but he’s worked to a tidy 2.64 ERA on the road where he’ll be for this one tonight.
That said, he hasn’t fared well against the Giants in his career, posting a 6.00 ERA in nine career starts against them while he owns a 4.98 ERS across six outings at Oracle Park despite it’s pitcher-friendly confines.
The Giants will turn to veteran right-hander Johnny Cueto for this one as he makes his 11th start of the season.
To this point, Cueto has turned in a 4.78 ERA/4.45 FIP on the season while increasing his strikeout rate from 7.56 K/9 for his career to 8.20 this time around. That said, his walks are up to 3.76 BB/9 on the season – the second-worst mark of his career aside from last year’s 5.06 mark in just four starts.
While he still owns a 4.84 SIERA, he hasn’t been hit that hard with a 31% hard-hit rate against on the season.
It would appear he’s in for some notable regression at home. Cueto enters this one sporting a 5.54 ERA at home this season, but also a solid 4.14 FIP, 4.07 xFIP and a 10.38 K/9. All of those numbers are far superior to his work on the road, but a BABIP nearly 100 points higher at home has been his undoing at Oracle Park. It would certainly appear he’s in for better results at home, but of course, we’re running out of time in 2020.
In his career against the Rockies, Cueto has posted a sparkling 2.71 ERA in 17 starts while he’s posted a career 3.74 ERA at Oracle Park – formerly AT&T Park in San Francisco.
It’s been a disappointing season after a white-hot start for the Rockies, and their offense has actually dragged them down at times.
Their overall offensive numbers are always boosted by the extreme hitter-friendly confines of Coors Field in Colorado, but with park factors included, their 76 wRC+ on the season ranks 28th.
They’ve also struggled mightily against right-handed pitching, and on the road.
Against righties, the Rockies rank 27th with a .298 wOBA on the season, and that actually includes their work at home without park factors behind removed. On the road, they also rank 27th with a .286 wOBA and strike out 26.5% of the time, good for the fourth-highest K-rate on the road this season.
Making matters worse, Nolan Arenado could be lost for the season. He’s been dealing with an AC joint injury for a couple weeks, and was sat out of yesterday’s game. It’s been rumored he could be shut down for the remainder of the season with the Rockies’ playoff hopes on life support at this point. Thus, their best hitter is quite likely to be out for this one tonight.
The Giants have largely surprised on offense this season as the team was pegged to be in the basement of the league in that department.
Against right-handed pitching, the Giants rank 10th with a .329 wOBA on the season, and despite the pitcher-friendly confines of Oracle Park, the Giants have absolutely raked at home to the tune of a fifth-ranked .357 wOBA to go alongside a .209 ISO, .840 OPS and 132 wRC+.
Like the Rockies, however, the Giants have some roster question marks in this one.
Breakout star Mike Yastrzemski remains questionable after sitting out the last three games with a right calf strain. Additionally, Alex Dickerson – he of a three-homer game at Coors Field not too long ago – is also questionable as he’s currently on the paternity list. As of this writing, he’s yet to be activated, so keep an eye on that.
Nonetheless, the Giants have been mashing right-handed pitching and at home this season in what appears to be a good combination against the right-handed Marquez who has struggled at this venue throughout his career.
This is where things turn ugly for the Rockies.
For their part, the Rockies’ bullpen also got off to a hot start, but has since been among the worst in baseball where they’ve been for a last couple of years.
They’ll enter this one sporting a 29th-ranked 6.95 ERA on the season, and their 5.36 FIP and 5.17 xFIP – although significantly better than that ERA figure – are certainly nothing to write home about.
That said, the group has been far better outside of Coors Field this season, turning in a 4.09 ERA on the road. That said, they also own a 5.21 FIP and 5.20 xFIP on the road where they’ve benefited from a low .254 BABIP against, so there’s definitely regression on the horizon whether it shows up tonight or not.
Over the last 30 days however, this has been the worst bullpen in baseball by a country mile as their league-worst 6.65 ERA in that time is more than a full run above the 29th-ranked Red Sox’s 5.62 ERA in that time. They also own a 6.09 FIP and 5.47 xFIP with a -0.9 fWAR in that time, the only team in negative fWAR territory. Yikes.
The Giants don’t have much to brag about with their bullpen, either, although their bullpen has been far better of late.
They’ll enter this one sporting an 18th-ranked 4.72 ERA on the season while their 4.60 FIP and 4.97 xFIP more or less agree with that figure.
That said, in that same 30-day time period as the Rockies above, the Giants sit 11th with a 3.99 bullpen ERA and ninth with a 3.95 FIP. Their 0.84 HR/9 against in that time sits in a tie for second place alongside the Padres.
So while it’s been and up and down season for this bullpen, it appears they are on the up at the moment.
Rockies vs. Giants MLB Pick
To me, there’s a case to be made for the under 8 as I expect the Rockies to struggle offensively here while the Giants could very well be without a pair of key bats that would normally hit 1-2 in this lineup.
That said, the more I look into this matchup, the more I like the home side to come out on top.
Again, the Rockies have been inadequate against right-handed pitching all season long and they’ve struggled mightily on the road. That’s not a good combination on the road against Cueto.
Additionally, while Marquez has some quality peripherals, he’s not had it at this venue in the past and against the Giants on the whole.
I think we’re getting the home side at a reasonable price in this one, so let’s grab the Giants on the moneyline.