Another split night in MLB picks, though it became a losing night overall, as we doubled-up on the Pirates and AJ Burnett only to see them lose 4-1 to the struggling Brewers. The Brew Crew had previously lost 9 of 10 before getting out of their pitching funk in Pittsburgh. We will try to bounce back with a winning night tonight with a few good matchups across MLB.
Cincinnati Reds -166 at Miami Marlins +155 (Total: 7.5)
Homer Bailey vs. Ricky Nolasco
The Reds head to Miami fresh off a three game sweep of the Brewers and on a four-game winning streak overall. They have played pretty well this season despite losing clean-up hitter Ryan Ludwick on Opening Day and playing most of the season without ace pitcher Johnny Cueto, however, they have been lost a bit in the blistering start by the NL’s top team, the St. Louis Cardinals.
The Reds tend to feast on lesser opponents and struggle with the better ones. They have lost series this year to the Nationals, Pirates and Cardinals twice, while winning nearly every series against sub .500 competition. The Marlins definitely fit the profile of the latter.
I like Homer Bailey to pitch well tonight. He has all season except when facing his nemesis, the Cardinals. Expect him to mow through a light-hitting Miami lineup tonight. Meanwhile, Ricky Nolasco has been a gamer for Miami, posting a respectable 3.72 ERA and earning two wins, but he just doesn’t have the team behind him to consistently compete for wins.
I like the Reds tonight, and I like them big.
Free Pick: Cincinnati Reds to WIN -166 & Cincinnati -1.5 (+100)
Kansas City Royals +117 at Los Angeles Angels -121 (Total: 8.5)
Jeremy Guthrie (5-0, 2.38 ERA) vs. Justin Vargas (1-3, 4.26 ERA)
It has been a profitable endeavor this season to bet against the Angels. They continued to frustrate, after showing signs of life last weekend the proceeded to get one-hit Sunday night on national television, and then get blown out 11-4 yesterday to start the homestand against Kansas City. Today they try to rebound with Jason Vargas on the mound, who has had his fair share of struggles this season.
Meanwhile, the Royals are plus-money with 5-0 Jeremy Guthrie on the hill. It’s a line that jumps off the page and screams at you. Given the Angels struggles and Guthrie’s great start, I’ll take the Royals who are a tremendous value tonight.
To make matters even more convincing, the Royals are hitting a ridiculous .293 against lefties this season and Vargas is indeed a southpaw. That is just another HUGE edge to accompany the favorable line. It’s baseball of course, so anything can happen, but this is one of the better potential values I’ve seen in weeks.
Free Pick: Kansas City Royals to WIN +117