Royals vs. Red Sox MLB Pick – August 5th

Another day and another loss for the Boston Red Sox. The Red Sox latest loss came in primetime on Sunday Night Baseball against the New York Yankees. A solid series last weekend against the Yankees in Boston has turned into a mess. The Sox won three of four games, which feels like an eternity ago now. However, they haven’t won a game since last Saturday and are going into Monday with an eight-game losing streak hanging over their heads.

The pitching has been anemic and was yet again last night with David Price on the hill. He lasted only 2.2 innings with 9 hits and 7 earned runs added to his portfolio. Price has typically had major problems at Yankee Stadium in the past and that was on full display Sunday.

The bullpen, which has gone through their fair share of problems as well, were actually the only thing keeping the Red Sox in the game. It didn’t matter, though, because the damage was already done and the offense got just 4 runs up on the board. This hasn’t been an offensive issue for the Red Sox, though. Failing to make a deal at the trade deadline for a starter may come back to haunt them, but no one else is doing much, so I don’t know if one pitcher makes all the difference.

There’s still time for the Red Sox to find the same rhythm that won them three out of four games last weekend. However, that was expected to be the springboard to push them into postseason contention, though they’re going into this week back by 6.5 games.

That will look like a bigger number as we get closer to the conclusion of the regular season. Rick Porcello will be tasked with getting the pitching back on track. Conversely, former Cub, Mike Montgomery, will be in the driver’s seat for the Royals. It’s been a struggle for both of these guys lately. Head below for our free Royals vs. Red Sox pick.

K.C. Royals vs. Boston Red Sox Pick:

Betting Odds:

  • Moneyline: Red Sox -235/Royals +200
  • O/U: 11.5

Pitching Matchup:

  • Mike Montgomery (1-4, 6.34 ERA)
  • Rick Porcello (9-8, 5.74 ERA)

Betting odds provided by bovada.lv

Part of the Red Sox failures have been on the shoulders of Rick Porcello. The former Cy Young winner from 2016 is pitching like a shell of his old self. In the following two years following the Cy Young, Porcello slipped to a 4.65 ERA and 4.28 ERA. This is his third season and the trend in the wrong direction has continued for him. Porcello enters this matchup against the Royals with an ERA of 5.74 and 1.46 WHIP.

That puts him well on his way for his worst season as a major league pitcher in a career that dates back to 2009 with the Tigers. He parlayed one solid season in Detroit into a nice contract with the Red Sox. Porcello has also had one solid season with the Red Sox, but otherwise, he’s been a tad overrated.

His most recent work hasn’t been anything near impressive. He has gotten hammered for 15 runs in his last 16.2 innings pitched. That equates to an ERA of 8.10 and 1.74 WHIP for Porcello. The Royals have had some success against him as well, with a .310 batting average in 100 at-bats.

The Red Sox offense are likely going to be able to take some frustration out on the Royals tonight. Even if Porcello isn’t great, the Red Sox can win this one by punishing Mike Montgomery. Montgomery was acquired to replace Homer Bailey, who was traded to Oakland, in the rotation. He was previously doing relief work for the Cubs this season and not succeeding. Montgomery left the Cubs with a 5.67 ERA in 20 appearances and his struggles have continued in KC.

Montgomery goes into Fenway Park with a 7.94 ERA in 11.1 innings pitched with the Royals. He took a 9-2 loss in his most recent outing, which came against the Jays in KC. The Red Sox are hitting .308 with a .357 OBP against Montgomery in 39 at-bats.

Note that the OVER has gone 5-1 in the Royals and Red Sox last six meetings and 7-2 in the last nine. An average of 12.6 runs was scored in those nine matchups. Expect at least 12 runs on the board to get this OVER the total at Fenway.

The Bet
OVER 11.5
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of The Sports Geek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at The Sports Geek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, and the NHL. Prior to writing for The Sports Geek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily at The Sports Geek.