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Royals vs. Tigers Pick MLB – Septemeber 14th

We notched an easy winner last night with the UNDER in the Seattle at St. Louis game.  Both Iwakuma and Wainwright did their job, holding the opposition to just a single run apiece, and the Cardinals tallied the game-winning run in the 10th to cap off a 2-1 victory.  It cashed a winning ticket for us, but it might have also cashed a winning ticket for the Cardinals.  The win pushed them to a full game ahead of the Pirates and four ahead of the Reds in the loss column.  Usual the logical assumption that the Reds and Pirates should beat each other up a little bit in their six remaining head-to-head games, if the Cardinals can avoid a collapse, the Central Division is looking more and more like it could be theirs.

We are down to just two weeks remaining in the regular season, so let’s finish strong and pluck out a few winners before October is here.  Today’s  free pick is an evening game.  There are a few good afternoon games as well, but if you are reading this column, I am going to go on the assumption that you also love sports – so there is a good chance you (and the rest of the world) will be glued to Alabama v Texas A&M this afternoon.  So once that wraps up, here’s a good baseball game to flip on over to catch…

Today’s Free Pick:

Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers

Ervin Santana (8-9, 3.35 ERA) vs. Doug Fister (12-8, 3.77 ERA)

The Tigers dealt the Royals a crippling blow yesterday with their 6-3 win.  Not that KC had any realistic chance of catching Detroit; even a series sweep would have left them four full games back.  But it also severely damaged their fleeting wildcard hopes.  They fell to 3 ½ games out of the second wildcard spot, and more importantly trail three teams in the pursuit.  If they want any chance of playing meaning games in the final week for the first time in FOREVER, they need to win the final two games of the season.

They will be putting their best foot forward tonight with starter Ervin Santana.  Santana has a losing record, but enters with the second best ERA among KC starters, trailing only Bruce Chen who has pitched almost 100 innings less and besting ace James Shields by 0.03.  His last three outings haven’t been quite as sharp, posting a 4.67 ERA and the Royals losing ALL three games.

His opposition, Doug Fister, has also hit his share of struggles lately.  He has an ERA of 5.89 over 18.1 innings in his last three starts, and the Tigers (who have supplied plenty of offense for Fister all season) are just 1-2.

If you add up the fact that both starters have been reeling, combined with the fact Detroit boast the second best statistical offense in all of baseball, makes this seem like it could be a high-scoring affair.  These two have notched at least seven runs in six consecutive matchups, and have scored nine of more in half of them.  I like that trend to continue tonight and for the total to get OVER the relatively low 7.5.

Free Pick:  Run TOTAL OVER 7.5