With the flurry of trades last weekend, we are seeing players start making their debuts for their new teams, and several of these teams look a lot different than they did just a week ago. The Toronto Blue Jays will start Tajuan Walker in his second appearances in a Blue Jays uniform after bringing him over from the Seattle Mariners and seeing him pick up a win in his first start with his new team, throwing six shutout innings against the Baltimore Orioles.
Starling Marte has three hits, including a home run in his first two games with the Miami Marlins. Philly got to try out their new reliever David Phelps last night, and he pitched an inning and a third of no-hit ball against the Washington Nationals. And Josh Naylor picked up two hits and two runs scored in his second game with the Cleveland Indians.
— San Diego Padres (@Padres) August 31, 2020
Getting acclimated to these new rosters is going to be very important, as we saw several impact players switch teams. The biggest name that got moved this week was starting pitcher Mike Clevinger. Clevinger was traded from Cleveland to San Diego and will make his first start for the Padres tonight. And that is where we will focus for our free daily betting pick, as the San Diego Padres play the Los Angeles Angels.
San Diego Padres (23-15) at Los Angeles Angels (12-25)
The San Diego Padres hammered the Los Angeles Angels last night in game one of a two-game set and will look to make it a series sweep tonight in game two. The Padres loaded up at the trade deadline, making six total trades, involving a whopping 26-players. If you had any questions as to whether or not the Padres were all-in on winning now, before last week, you don’t anymore, as this team is ready to compete with the Los Angeles Dodgers for the National League pennant.
For Los Angeles, the Angels getting blown out last night was just another bump in the road of what has been a very bumpy season for the Angels. LA has lost three straight games, and their 12-25 record is tied with the Boston Red Sox for the worst record in the American League. While the postseason is likely out of their reach at this point, the Angels are hoping they can at least save a little face down the stretch and find a way to not finish in the basement of the American League West Division.
Starting tonight for the Angels is Andrew Heaney (2-2 4.62 ERA), and for the Padres, it is Mike Clevinger (1-1 3.18 ERA). The game total over/under is set at eight and a half runs. The Padres are -140 road favorites. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 PM PST from Angel Stadium in Anaheim.
San Diego Padres
The San Diego Padres had the best trade deadline in recent memory last week. Not only did they make a bunch of moves, they made moves that made a lot of sense, both in the short term and the long term. This wasn’t a team pushing the panic button and overpaying for players they didn’t need. This was a calculated final step in what has been a several year’s long rebuilding process.
The Padres managed to pick up several elite players, including the best starter on the market in Mike Clevinger, and the best closer available in Trevor Rosenthal. They also added impact bats, Mitch Moreland, Jason Castro, and Austin Nola. Yesterday was the first time all of these new guys were together, and the Padres routed the Angels 11-4. If last night was a sign of things to come for San Diego, the rest of the National League better watch out.
Mike Clevinger (1-1 3.18 ERA)
It is pretty rare that a first-place team trades away one of their best players, but the relationship between Clevinger and the Indians was irrevocably broken after he violated team COVID-19 protocols, and it was inevitable that he was going to get moved. It certainly hasn’t been his on the field performance that got him shipped out of Cleveland, as he has been one of the best pitchers in the American League the last several seasons and has pitched well this year.
Clevinger is 1-1 with a 3.18 ERA in four starts this season, and in August, he was light’s out in two starts. In two August starts, he made just two starts on the month as he was sent to the Indians alternate training site for punishment for breaking team rules for a couple of weeks, he was 1-0 with a 1.54 ERA. In his final start with Cleveland, coming last week, he pitched six quality innings against the hard-hitting Minnesota Twins, allowing just two earned runs.
Los Angeles Angels
The Los Angeles Angels just aren’t playing well this season. And it’s not like they have been ravaged by injuries like other teams that everyone thought would be in contention that are struggling, like the New York Mets or the Washington Nationals. This Angels team mostly looks like the team they thought they would have coming into the year.
Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon, Albert Pujols, and Shohei Ohtani have been on the field most of the year, and injuries to guys like Andrelton Simmons, Max Stassi, and Griffin Canning shouldn’t have been ones that hurt them all that much. But despite having most of their best players on the field, the Angels have been the worst team in the American League all season long and are buried in the basement of the AL West Division.
Andrew Heaney (2-2 4.62 ERA)
Andrew Heaney has been an innings eater for the Angels this year, and despite having some decent outings, the Angels have lost four out of his six starts. His 4.62 ERA is right in line with his career ERA of 4.45, and he has managed to eat up 37 innings, second-most on the team behind only Dylan Bundy. Nothing spectacular to see here, but he has been serviceable for an Angels team that, for the most part, hasn’t been.
But when you take a little bit of a closer look at Heaney’s stats this year, one thing stands out. Nearly all of his good outings have come against the Seattle Mariners. A Mariners team that is one of the weakest hitting teams in the American League.
In three starts against Seattle, Heaney is 2-0 with a combined 18.1 innings pitched and has given up just four earned runs. Against any other team, not named the Seattle Mariners, Heaney is 0-2 with 15 runs allowed in just 18.2 innings worked. That is a 7.36 ERA. Yikes.
Who Do I Like?
The San Diego Padres are the best hitting team in the Major Leagues right now, and they are only going to get better as their new hitters get acclimated to the team. They scored eleven runs last night in game one, and that was the fifth time they have scored double-digit runs in a game in the last two weeks. On the year, they have scored double-digits in a game seven times.
I think the Padres are going to light up Andrew Heaney tonight. When Heaney has pitched against good hitting teams like the A’s and the Dodgers, he has gotten blasted, and I see this Padres lineup as even better than both of those teams right now. Don’t be shocked if Heaney gives up a bunch of runs, and the Padres threaten to hit double-digit runs for the second night in a row.
If you have been reading my daily picks this year, you may have noticed a trend. I bet against the Los Angeles Angels, a lot. For some reason, the Angels are consistently overpriced in the betting market, and I have faded them in most of their games this season. And as you can see by their league-worst record, I am making a killing betting against the Angels.
This is just another bad number on LA. Mike Clevinger is a legit ace, and the Padres are the far superior team in this game, in every way possible. To see this line at a fairly tight price is absolutely ludicrous. If I were setting a fair price on this game, I would have the Padres laying -200 or more. The fact that the line is just -140, opens up a ton of value on San Diego.
I’ve said it a lot this year, and I am sure I will be saying it again at some point soon. Another day, another fade of the Los Angeles Angels. The Padres are going to hammer this bad Angels pitching staff, and it wouldn’t shock me to see a fired-up Mike Clevinger shut the Angels completely down.
Changing leagues can be tough on a pitcher, but that won’t affect Clevinger tonight, as he gets to pitch against an Angels team that he is very familiar with from his time in Cleveland. Give me the San Diego Padres at a very underpriced -140 tonight on the road, as they kick the Angels while they are down and stay hot with yet another win!