San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks Pick – Major League Baseball April 7, 2022

The single greatest day of the year is finally upon us, Major League Baseball Opening Day! Between potential COVID-19 related delays and a late start to the season due to a labor dispute, there were times that it felt like today would never come, but here we are, on day 1 of the long and winding road that is the Major League Baseball regular season.

Many casual fans don’t start sweating baseball until the weather and the division title races heat up later in the year, but for us sharp MLB handicappers, we know that early-season baseball can offer some of the highest value of any sport. If you do your homework, you can absolutely beat the books early in the year!

We have Big League baseball every day from now until October, and if that doesn’t excite you, I don’t know what will! With that, let’s kick off TheSportsGeek’s 2022 MLB coverage as we head to Arizona, for the game between the Diamondbacks and the Padres!

San Diego Padres (0-0)

Last year was supposed to be THE year for the San Diego Padres. But a slew of injuries and poor play in the 2nd half doomed the Friars, as they finished a disappointing 3rd in the NL West Division and missed out on the playoffs with a 79-83 record. This year, the injury bug has already bitten the Padres again, as superstar Fernando Tatis Jr will miss several months and starting pitcher Mike Clevinger, a sexy comeback player of the year candidate after missing all of last season injured, may miss time as well, as he is listed as day-to-day.

It is easy to point at the guys the Padres won’t have on the field in this game, but when you look at the guys they still have healthy, this is still a very talented roster. San Diego added slugger Luke Voit to their roster in the offseason, and he is expected to slot into the DH spot for the Pads and should add some additional pop to their lineup. They also added starting pitcher Sean Manaea last week and they even made a trade this morning, adding closer Taylor Rogers in a trade for starter Chris Paddack.

The Padres have been the most active team in the majors in the last week, as they are clearly still pushing for a run to the postseason, despite the injuries that are sure to slow them down early in the season. The question is, will the Padres be able to hang around in the uber-competitive NL West Division while they wait for all of their best players to get healthy? San Diego will try to start the season out undefeated today, as they send former Cy Young Award contender Yu Darvish to the mound tonight in Arizona.

Yu Darvish

Last year, Yu Darvish had a season that was very representative of the Padre’s season as a whole. If you just quickly glance at his stats, you might think he had a bad year, but that wasn’t necessarily the case, as he was actually an All-Star in the first half of the year! But just like the rest of this Padres’ squad, the wheels fell off in the 2nd half for Darvish.

Darvish is no spring chicken at age-35, but his stats were actually pretty good last year as his K/rate was elite at nearly 11 strikeouts per 9 innings, and his walk rate and whip were well below his career averages. Interestingly enough, if you look back on Darvish’s career, his first year with each of the teams he has played for has always been a struggle.

His first season with Texas, after coming over from Japan as a highly touted prospect, was his worst season with the Rangers, and the same thing could be said about his first year with the Cubs as well, as he was much better after his first season on the North Side. History tells us that it takes a little time for Darvish to get settled in with a new team, but once he does, he is amongst the most dominant strikeout pitchers in the game.

Today’s Starting Pitching Matchup

Yu Darvish

  • (8-11)
  • 4.22 ERA
  • 10.8 K/9 Ratio
  • 1.09 WHIP
Madison Bumgarner

  • (7-10)
  • 4.67 ERA
  • 7.6 K/9 Ratio
  • 1.18 WHIP

Arizona Diamondbacks (0-0)

The Diamondbacks entered last season feeling like a team that could potentially contend in the National League. But those dreams were quickly dashed, as the DBacks were awful and decided to hold a fire sale, and when all the smoke cleared on the year, Arizona had one of the worst seasons in MLB history, losing a whopping 110 games. When you lose that many games, it is never going to be a quick process to get things turned back around, and while Arizona has started to move back towards contention, this year isn’t going to be one where wins are a major part of the equation for the DBacks.

Ketel Marte continues to be a stud for Arizona, but outside of Marte, there isn’t a lot of meat on the bone for Arizona. The DBacks have done a solid job of rebuilding their farm system, and they have some promising youngsters coming up in the pipeline, but none of those guys will be ready for the Big Leagues in 2022, which tells me that it is going to be a long year for the Diamondbacks. You may as well pencil Arizona in for last place in the NL West now, as they just aren’t going to be able to hang with the rest of this tough division.

Madison Bumgarner

I am not going to lie, when I pulled up Madison Bumgarner’s stats, I almost couldn’t believe that he is somehow still only 32 years old! This guy has been pitching in The Show since he was a teenager and after a long and successful career with the San Francisco Giants, he seems to just be playing out the stick at this point of his career. While last season was a lot better for MaddyBums than the previous season was, he still wasn’t any good, and when you compare his 2 seasons in Arizona to his 11 years with the Giants, the comparison is stark.

With the DBacks, his ERA is up nearly 2 full runs, his Ks are down, his walks are up, and he has a losing record overall. My gut tells me that Bumgarner is a borderline Hall of Famer from his time with the Giants, but if he continues to pitch poorly for the DBacks, he could play himself off of the ballot, as his ERA north of 5 runs in the last couple of season has been embarrassing for the once elite hurler. You hate to ever see a legend like Madison Bumgarner trudging through his final years in the majors playing poorly for a last-place team, but that is what the twilight of his career is starting to look like for the former World Series hero.

San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Odds And Team Statistics

The following odds are courtesy of BetOnline:

Teams Money line Total Run Line
San Diego Padres (-135) Over 9 (-105) -1.5 (+115)
Arizona Diamondbacks (+115) Under 9 (-115) +1.5 (-135)
Team Data San Diego Padres Arizona Diamondbacks
Overall Record 79-83 (2021) 52-110 (2021)
Home Record 45-36 (2021) 32-49 (2021)
Away Record 34-47(2021) 20-61 (2021)
Runs Per Game 4.41 4.17
Runs Against Per Game 4.29 5.28
Hits Per Game 7.91 7.94
Walks Per Game 3.54 3.29

San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction:

If you are someone who has been a follower of my daily MLB picks for TheSportsGeek over the course of the last several years, you will know that I love backing underdogs when it comes to betting on Major League Baseball. We have killed the game by betting dogs, and home dogs are always going to be my favorite types of bets. But when I see that Arizona had the worst home-field record in the majors last year at 32-49, fading the DBacks at home doesn’t scare me in the slightest.

I know the Padres aren’t as good right now as they are going to be at some point this season, but they are still the far superior team in this matchup. Arizona stinks and at least for this year, they aren’t even trying to get better. We have seen it time and again in Major League Baseball that you either want to be great or awful, as the teams in the middle end up spending a lot of money to never win a championship, and the DBacks have completely blown it up and hit the reset button.

San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Trends:

San Diego Padres
  • The total has gone OVER in 13 of San Diego’s last 20 games
  • San Diego is 1-8 SU in their last 9 games
  • San Diego is 1-8 SU in their last 9 games on the road
  • San Diego is 4-15 SU in their last 19 games when playing on the road against Arizona
  • The total has gone OVER in 13 of San Diego’s last 20 games against an opponent in the National League
Arizona Diamondbacks
  • The total has gone OVER in 10 of Arizona’s last 15 games
  • Arizona is 5-14 SU in their last 19 games
  • Arizona is 4-11 SU in their last 15 games at home
  • Arizona is 15-4 SU in their last 19 games when playing at home against San Diego
  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona’s last 6 games against an opponent in the National League

100 losses are nearly certain for Arizona this year and even with as shaky as Yu Darvish looked late last season, he still has good stuff and should be able to contain what is going to be one of the weakest hitting teams in all of baseball this season, tonight on Opening Day, against the DBacks. Bumgarner has a ton of pride, so he will probably be at least decent in front of the home-field fans, but I see the Padres pulling away in this one and picking up their first win of the 2022 Major League Baseball season!

I am always very leery of laying wood on the road, but this is plain and simple a bad line. The Padres actually opened up at (-165) and that number felt a lot sharper than this one. But after the public has hammered Arizona to shift the line 30 points towards the DBacks, I will fade the public and back the Padres at what I see as a very reasonable price. You can’t win ‘em all if you don’t win this first one! Give me the San Diego Padres (-135) as small road favorites tonight as they knock off the Arizona Diamondbacks in game 1 of 162!


San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks Pick
San Diego Padres (-135)
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Jason Gray / Author

Jason is a true Las Vegas insider as he has called the sports betting capital of the world his home for sixteen years. Jason started out his career in gaming by running the biggest poker tournaments in the world and managing some of the biggest sportsbooks on the strip. Jason has transitioned out of casino operations and has been covering sports betting for the sports geek for just over two years. His main focus is on baseball, college basketball, and the NFL

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