San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants Pick – MLB October 3, 2021

The San Diego Padres and San Francisco Giants play one more game with something on the line at Oracle Park. The Giants magic number to win the NL West still stands at one after they lost on Saturday.

San Diego were spoilers with a 3-2 win behind a big performance from Joe Musgrove. Musgrove was in good form, as he went 5 innings with 3 hits and 1 earned run allowed on his final start for this season. He did himself well this season with a very solid campaign.

Kevin Gausman did his part for the Giants through 7 innings. Gausman allowed 6 hits and 1 earned run in the loss. There’s a guy that was motivated to clinch the NL West yesterday. They still need another win or a loss from the Dodgers on Sunday.

It would be some kind of punch to the gut if the Giants lose the NL West on the final day of the regular season. They’ve been holding the Dodgers off for months now, and then they lose the division on the final day? That would be a big ouch.

The Dodgers have one final date with the Milwaukee Brewers on Sunday. Walker Buehler is getting the call for the Dodgers against Brett Anderson of the Brewers. That game is just as important as this one for the Giants, but they are still in control of their own destiny this afternoon.

The ball will go to Logan Webb to open the regular season finale for the Giants. Webb has been a steady and consistent rock to lean on for the Giants in 2021. He hit a rough patch recently, but bounced back with a strong outing in his most recent showing versus the Diamondbacks. Rookie Reiss Knehr is expected to go for the Padres. Head below for our free Padres vs. Giants pick on October 3, 2021.

San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants Live Odds and Betting History:

The following odds are courtesy of BetOnline:

Teams Spread Moneyline Total
San Diego Padres +1.5 (-115) +197 Over 9 (+100)
San Francisco Giants -1.5 (-105) -217 Under 9 (-120)
Team Data San Diego Padres San Francisco Giants
Overall Record 79-82 106-55
Away/Home Record 34-46 53-27
Batting Average .239 .246
Batting Average Away/Home .240 .251
Runs Per 9 4.59 5.03
Team ERA 4.03 3.24
Team ERA Away/Home 4.57 3.27

Padres vs. Giants Prediction:

This might not be the biggest game for the Padres. They removed themselves from the postseason race already. However, for rookie Reiss Knehr, he is looking to impress for next season. Knehr wants a spot in the rotation in 2022, and he’s been going through an audition with the team.

He’s mainly been used as a bullpen opener, not pitching more than 2.1 innings. He has averaged 2.1 innings per game this season. The Padres gave him more work in his last start. Knehr went 4 innings against the Atlanta Braves, and it was a meh performance for him. He was tagged for 5 hits and 3 earned runs across 4 innings.

That wasn’t the best outing for Knehr after Jayce Tingler put faith in him to pitch as a normal starter and go beyond 3 innings. That was the longest outing of his career. He’s going into Oracle Park with an ERA of 6.43 and a 1.71 WHIP in his previous three starts. His best hasn’t been displayed on the road, as he owns a 6.75 ERA and 1.88 WHIP.

San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants Betting Trends:


  • Record (Last 10): 2-8
  • 1-7 overall in their previous eight games
  • 1-7 overall in their previous eight games on the road
  • 2-12 overall in their previous 14 games
  • 18-37 overall in their previous 55 games on the road
  • 1-6 overall in their previous seven games versus a right-handed starter
  • Reiss Knehr ERA (Last 3): 6.43


  • Record (Last 10): 8-2
  • 4-1 overall in their previous five games at Oracle Park
  • 39-12 overall in their previous 51 games versus the NL West
  • 41-13 overall in their previous 54 games versus a right-handed pitcher
  • 42-16 overall in their previous 58 games as a favorite at Oracle Park
  • 8-2 overall in their previous ten games on a Sunday
  • Jameson Taillon ERA (Last 3): 3.38

Logan Webb has been a valuable arm for the Giants this season. After struggling in his first two seasons, Webb has made tremendous improvement.

Webb is going into Sunday afternoon with an ERA of 2.87 and a 1.11 WHIP through 142 innings. He had a couple of rough starts recently on September 12 and September 23, but came back in good form versus the Diamondbacks.

Webb went 5 innings with no earned runs allowed in a 6-4 win. He has posted a 3.38 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in his previous three attempts.

It’s no surprise that Webb got back on track back at home. Webb hasn’t been reliable on the road with a 3.96 ERA and 1.24 WHIP through 75 innings.

However, he’s turned it up in the Bay Area with a 1.63 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. I think we’re getting good value on the Giants to win by at least 2 runs. Look for the Giants to clinch the NL West on the final day of the season.


Padres vs. Giants Pick
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of TheSportsGeek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at TheSportsGeek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, NHL, and horse racing. Prior to writing for TheSportsGeek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily only at TheSportsGeek.

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