San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants Pick – MLB September 14, 2021

The San Diego Padres and San Francisco Giants have three more games of a four-game series at Oracle Park to get to. The Giants were the first team to clinch a spot in the postseason with a 9-1 win over the Padres last night.

A longshot going into the season, the Giants continue to defy the preseason odds and guarantee a seat in the postseason. That was a foregone conclusion for the Giants after about mid-way point this season. What isn’t a foregone conclusion is which seed the Giants are going to land with.

They could go into the postseason as a wildcard or with the top seed in the major leagues. The Giants are currently up on the Dodgers by 2.5 games. Their record of 94-50 is tops in the majors, but they still may have to go into October with a wildcard if they don’t protect their lead. The Dodgers keep winning, as do the Giants.

If the Giants blink over the next two weeks, expect the Dodgers to be there to pick up on their weakness. This has been the case for the last month, and the Giants keep on repelling and blocking any bid from the Dodgers. The Giants have been holding onto a 2.5-game lead since beating the Dodgers last Sunday night.

The Padres are just trying to get into the postseason. While the Giants are in, the Padres fate may not look as promising. The team that was supposed to be competing with the Dodgers for the NL West title is currently on the outside looking in. They’re not one of the five teams in the National League with a postseason spot at the moment.

However, San Diego is just a half game back of the Reds, so it’s more than doable. They have company around them, though, as the St. Louis Cardinals are tied and just a half game back as well. The Cardinals? Yeah, keep up. The Cardinals going to the postseason looked highly improbable just a month ago.

The Padres are expected to go with former ace of the Cubs, Jake Arrieta, to the bump on Tuesday night. He will look to find his form after some iffy work in recent memory. The Giants are scheduled to counter with Anthony DeSclafani. Head below for our free Padres vs. Giants pick on September 14, 2021.

San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants Live Odds and Betting History:

The following odds are courtesy of BetOnline:

Teams Spread Moneyline Total
San Diego Padres +1.5 (-132) +157 Over 9 (-105)
San Francisco Giants -1.5 (+112) -171 Under 9 (-115)
Team Data San Diego Padres San Francisco Giants
Overall Record 74-69 94-50
Away/Home Record 30-38 46-23
Batting Average .240 .248
Batting Average Away/Home .237 .253
Runs Per 9 4.72 5.07
Team ERA 3.85 3.26
Team ERA Away/Home 4.40 3.34

Padres vs. Giants Prediction:

The Padres are looking for any kind of positive sign for Jake Arrieta. Arrieta is desperately trying to keep his career together, but he might have to reinvent himself in the offseason if he wants another opportunity.

The veteran finished with an ERA above 4.00 in 2019 with a 4.64 and hasn’t been in good form since then. Arrieta posted an ERA of 5.08 and a 1.51 WHIP in 2020, his final season with the Phillies. The Cubs believed that returning Arrieta to Wrigley Field might be good for him, but he continued to regress.

Arrieta recorded a 6.88 ERA and 1.76 WHIP in 20 starts last season with the Cubs in 2021. The Padres took a flier on Arrieta in a trade, and haven’t been thrilled with what they’ve seen from him in two starts. He is going into this start with an ERA of 8.64 and a 1.44 WHIP.

Arrieta conceded 10 hits and 8 earned runs versus the Rockies and Astros. I don’t think a chance of scenery is going to do Arrieta any good. His career is running on fumes. Going into Tuesday, Arrieta has an ERA of 9.74 and a 2.07 WHIP with a 0-3 record in his previous three outings.

San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants Betting Trends:


  • Record (Last 10): 3-7
  • 1-5 overall in their previous six games
  • 0-5 overall in their previous six games on the road
  • OVER is 4-1 in their previous five games
  • OVER is 5-0 in their previous five games at Oracle Park
  • OVER is 6-0-1 in their previous seven games after a loss
  • OVER is 4-0 in their previous four games after scoring 2 or fewer runs
  • Jake Arrieta ERA (Last 3): 9.74


  • Record (Last 10): 9-1
  • 8-0 overall in their previous eight games
  • OVER is 6-0 in their previous six games versus the Padres
  • OVER is 5-0 in their previous five games versus the Padres at Oracle Park
  • OVER is 5-1-1 in their previous seven games when their opponent concedes 5 or more runs in their most recent game
  • OVER is 4-1 in their previous five games versus the NL West
  • Anthony DeSclafani (Last 3): 4.05

Anthony DeSclafani has been a productive arm in the Giants’ rotation. He goes into Tuesday night with an ERA of 3.33 and a 1.12 WHIP through 146 innings. DeSclafani hasn’t been at his best recently, though, as he has posted a 4.05 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in his previous three starts.

There hasn’t been anything wrong with DeSclafani at Oracle Park, but he’s been more vulnerable than on the road. DeScalfani has been tagged for a 3.60 ERA at home as opposed to a 3.16 ERA on the road. The power numbers have been solid for the Padres versus DeSclafani, as they’ve recorded 6 home runs and 15 RBIs in 113 at-bats.

There are five hitters in the Padres’ lineup hitting better than .273 versus DeSclafani. In his most recent attempt against the Giants, he allowed 4 hits and 3 earned runs across 5.1 innings of work. He should still be able to outpitch Arrieta in this one, but there should be runs regardless. The OVER looks like a good value choice at this price.


Padres vs. Giants Pick
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of TheSportsGeek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at TheSportsGeek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, NHL, and horse racing. Prior to writing for TheSportsGeek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily only at TheSportsGeek.

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