A pair of National League contenders will renew an old rivalry in Atlanta on Wednesday night. The Atlanta Braves and San Francisco Giants have split the first two games of their ongoing four-game set, with Tuesday’s win turning into an epic shootout.
A pair of aces will take the mound in Wednesday’s clash. The Giants will turn to left-hander Carlos Rodon, while the Braves will throw veteran righty Charlie Morton.
Oddsmakers expect a tight one here, with the Braves checking in as slight -145 moneyline favorites at home. The Giants, meanwhile, are at +125 on the moneyline in a game with an over/under of 8.5 runs.
San Francisco Giants
The Giants came out of nowhere to win 107 games last year. They ultimately outlasted the Dodgers in a compelling NL West race, though Los Angeles got the last laugh by beating the Giants in the Division Series. Of course, the Braves would go on to upset the Dodgers on their way to an unexpected World Series title.
The Giants aren’t on quite the same pace so far this season, thanks, in part, to some injuries. All of Brandon Belt, Mike Yastrzemski, Anthony DeSclafani, LaMonte Wade, Tommy La Stella, and Evan Longoria have spent time on the injured list this term. The Giants have also had a very difficult time replacing catcher Buster Posey, who retired unexpectedly after last season.
Still, Gabe Kapler has San Francisco at 38-29 on the year and in the thick of the NL West race. The Giants are just third in the current standings, but they’re still within striking distance of the Dodgers and Padres at the top. The divisional co-leaders enter Wednesday’s action only 3.5 games in front of the Giants.
However, Rodon’s matchup tonight is exceedingly difficult. The Braves can throw an awful lot of right-handed power his way, with Ronald Acuna Jr. leading the way at the top of the order. Brian Snitker’s projected lineup for this game boasts a collective .212 ISO with a .342 wOBA against left-handed pitching since the start of last season. Both marks are well above league average.
The Braves started slowly a season ago before turning things around in a big way in the latter stages of the campaign. So far this season, we’ve seen a similar story. Atlanta was just 23-27 at the end of May, but they come into tonight’s game nine games north of the .500 mark.
Since June 1, the defending World Series champs are an incredible 16-3, though they’re still struggling to make up ground on the NL East-leading Mets. New York still has a 5.5-game lead over Atlanta entering Wednesday’s games, though we know there’s more than enough time left in the season for the Braves to continue to close the gap.
Morton has been one of the most reliable starters in the majors dating back to his breakout 2017 campaign with Houston. However, the 38-year-old might be starting to show some signs of aging.
Morton’s numbers are quite strange overall. The strikeout rate (25.3 percent) is still outstanding, though well south of last year’s mark of about 28 percent. Morton’s walk rate has also climbed to nearly 9 percent, and his 5.08 ERA thus far is his first since his rookie season way back in 2008.
Morton has been the victim of a high .324 BABIP, and his 3.78 SIERA says his ERA is a bit more inflated than it probably should be. However, the Giants do have quite a bit of left-handed power in the lineup, however, and they greeted Braves starter Spencer Strider rather rudely in Tuesday’s game.
San Francisco Giants at Atlanta Braves MLB Game Pick
For whatever reason, oddsmakers tend to underrate the impacts of weather when setting their odds.
We don’t typically think of the Giants as a slugging team, but they did lead the NL in homers last season. Four of the first five hitters in the Giants’ projected lineup tonight are left-handed, and Morton is yielding an unsightly .384 wOBA to LHBs so far in 2022.
When he’s right, Rodon can be one of the most dominant pitchers in the sport. I think the Giants look like an awesome value to win this one outright at +125 on the moneyline. Morton hasn’t looked quite right so far this season, and the Giants are well equipped to take advantage of his struggles to contain left-handed bats.
San Francisco Giants at Atlanta Braves Betting Recap
- Moneyline: Giants +125, Braves -145
- Runline: Giants +1.5 (-175), Braves -1.5 (+150)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 runs (-120), Under 8.5 runs (+100)
- Pick: Giants (+125)