San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres MLB Pick – July 27th

Our blistering hot summer continued last night as we picked up yet another win on a major underdog! Last night’s win came as many of them have this month, by backing the San Francisco Giants. The G-Men have somehow figured out a way to turn what looked to be a disappointing season around here in July as they lead the majors with a 17-4 record on the month. So, when I saw them as +131 underdogs last night against a Padres team that was in freefall, I hammered it.

The game was a tight one as expected and hit extra innings tied at one run apiece. In the eleventh inning, Pablo Sandoval blasted a home run to give the Giants the lead, and Will Smith closed it out in the bottom of the frame to give the Giants their seventh consecutive win over the Padres. This surge up the standings has been nothing short of remarkable for the Giants as they have gone from last place to very much in the mix for the playoffs in the National League.

For the Padres, their season seems to be over, and while I don’t expect them to hold a fire sale this week before the July 31st trade deadline, they aren’t going to be buying either. With the win last night, we ran our record to 19-7 on the month, that is over 73% winners! For today’s pick, we will stay here in San Diego and breakdown game two between the Padres and the Giants.

The San Francisco Giants are in San Diego today for game two of a three-game series with the Padres. The Giants have swept the Padres twice this season and are looking to pick up the series win tonight in game two. For the Padres, they are desperately trying to keep their season alive and must find a way to win tonight at home.

Starting tonight for the Giants is Shaun Anderson (3-2 4.91 ERA), and for the Padres it is Cal Quantrill (3-2 3.76 ERA). The game total over-under is set at eight and a half runs. The Padres are -123 home favorites. First pitch is scheduled for 5:40 PM PST from PETCO Park in San Diego.

Shaun Anderson has not been very good recently for the San Francisco Giants. He started out his season pitching well as after joining the rotation in mid-May, he had a 3.86 ERA and a winning record at 3-2. Those are solid stats for a young guy making his major league debut. But in July, he has been getting roughed up as his ERA is 7.85.

But get this, it hasn’t mattered at all for this smoking hot Giants team. Despite giving up sixteen runs in his four starts this month, the Giants are 4-0 in games where Anderson starts. The Giants have scored a whopping thirty-three runs of support for Anderson this month. And really, that has been the trend most of the season as the Giants just seem to always score runs with Anderson on the mound. On the year the Giants are 9-4 when Anderson starts, pretty good for a guy with mediocre at best stats.

Cal Quantrill has been very much the opposite of Anderson this year in that he seems to pitch well, but it doesn’t really matter as the Padres can’t win with him on the mound. In July, this guy has been light’s out with a 1.69 ERA in three starts, yet San Diego is just 1-2 in those three games. And that has been the trend all year long as his 3.76 ERA is decent, yet the Padres are 5-8 in his thirteen starts. He pitched against these Giants in early July and had one of his worst outings on the season, lasting just four and a third innings and giving up three earned runs.

Normally this would be a spot where I would ignore the recent hype of the Giants, have a clear mind, and back the Padres at home. But something tells me things are different with this Giants team right now. They just refuse to lose. The extra-inning win last night was the fifth walk-off or extra-innings win of the month for San Francisco. That type of swagger is impossible to deny.

Until this team starts to cool down, I don’t know how you can’t like them as underdogs. They have won over 80% of their games in July. You can’t do that if you aren’t a good team, not for this long. And when you look at this dominance they have shown over the Padres, they have beaten them seven straight times, four of those coming this month in San Diego, you have to give a hefty mental advantage to the Giants in this game.

This Padres team is defeated, and the extra innings gut punch they took last night isn’t going to help that. San Diego has lost ten out of their last thirteen games, and it is really hard to turn around a slump like that against a team on fire like the Giants.

I don’t know how the Giants are going to manage to get it done tonight, but I think they will find a way to win this game. I have always subscribed to an if it ain’t broke don’t fix it mentality, and right now I am getting rich backing the Giants as underdogs. Maybe they hammer Quantrill and blow this game out. Maybe they pull another rabbit out of a hat miracle late in the game for another comeback win. Whatever the case may be, the Giants will get their hands raised at the end of this one. Give me the San Francisco Giants as road underdogs tonight in game two from PETCO Park!

The Bet: San Francisco Giants +113

My Pick
Jason Gray / Author

Jason is a true Las Vegas insider as he has called the sports betting capital of the world his home for sixteen years. Jason started out his career in gaming by running the biggest poker tournaments in the world and managing some of the biggest sportsbooks on the strip. Jason has transitioned out of casino operations and has been covering sports betting for the sports geek for just over two years. His main focus is on baseball, college basketball, and the NFL