San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs MLB Betting Pick – July 29

Though a long losing streak finally ended last night for the San Francisco Giants, their playoff positioning entering Tuesday’s trade deadline remains quite precarious. The Giants ended a seven-game losing streak with a win over the Cubs on Thursday evening, but stringing victories together with their often listless offense remains challenging.

Alex Cobb will look to shake his inconsistencies for the Giants, and he’ll be countered by an improving Marcus Stroman for Chicago. Though both these teams have likely played themselves out of playoff contention, good value remains on the board for this Friday night showdown.

PITCHING PROBABLES: Cubs: Marcus Stroman (2-5, 4.38 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 59 strikeouts); Giants: Alex Cobb (3-4, 4.62 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 74 strikeouts)

Though Marcus Stroman continues to work his way back from a shoulder injury, the diminutive flame-throwing righty is starting to show signs from early in his career. He’s been great away from Wrigley Field, and has only conceded two runs in nearly fifteen innings since his injury. The time off has done wonders, and going against a light-hitting Giants’ squad that has struggled of late, should again be seen as a welcome sign for the re-emerging right-hander.

It’s been a frustrating stretch for the Giants, especially coming out of the All-Star break. Once firmly contending for the NL Wild-Card, the Bay Area squad haven’t been making much contact of late. They struck out twelve times last night, and despite winning, some ominous signs loom for this struggling offense. And as seen below, the frustrations are starting to boil over into the dugout.

Though these teams are both on the outside looking in, there is still some solid value that we’ve isolated for Friday’s showdown. For added insight, the latest news, trends, and analysis, continue reading on beneath the posted odds for our breakdown and betting prediction for the second game of this entertaining San Francisco/Chicago series. Enjoy the game, folks!

Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Live Odds & Betting History

Betting odds provided by BOVADA

Spread:
  • Chicago Cubs +1.5 (-175)
  • San Francisco Giants -1.5 (+155)
Moneyline:
  • Chicago Cubs (+120)
  • San Francisco Giants (-140)
Total:
  • Over 7.5 (-110)
  • Under 7.5 (-110)
TEAM DATA CUBS GIANTS
Overall Record 40-58 49-50
Over/Under/Push 43-48-7 47-45-7
Home/Away Record 20-26 27-22
Runs Per Game 4.2 4.5
Runs Allowed Per Game 5.0 4.3
Team Batting Average .249 .239
Bullpen ERA 4.09 4.38

Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Prediction:

Look for the key to this game to be the continued improvement and stretching out of Marcus Stroman. Though it has taken time to build back his arm strength, Stroman has returned with vengeance since his shoulder injury at the outset of July. Since then, he’s been missing bats and securing only weak contact. Against the light-hitting Giants, that’ll surely be enough to put his team in the driver’s seat to secure the upset victory.

One of the big rates of improvement for Stroman has been a career high strikeout rate, to the tune of 23.3%. This has kept balls in play at a lower rate, not putting as much pressure on a mediocre Cubs’ infield. He’s inducing all kinds of low contact, and as he looks to work deeper into ball games, the Giants’ offensive struggles will likely continue Friday night.

For San Francisco, the puzzling and inconsistent Alex Cobb will take the bump to extend this mini-winning streak to two games. Though Cobb has had a pretty woeful ERA to the tune of 4.26, his expected ERA continues to hover below 3.00. He should be pitching better, but he simply isn’t. Cobb has been experiencing some bad luck on balls in play, but has not received all that much help from his defense behind him either. Chicago’s offense has turned to youth of late, and they’ve seen some improved results. Rookie sensation Christopher Morel is getting it done with both the bat, and his legs on the base paths. He’s one to watch tonight.

It also doesn’t help that Cobb receives virtually zero help from the silent bats of the Giants either. San Francisco enters tonight ranked 29th in wRC+ over the past week, striking out on nearly 25% of their at-bats! They stranded seven runners last night vs. Chicago, and only managed to squeak out a tight victory. With Stroman in red-hot form, look for the Giants’ to go silently again this evening.

Cubs vs. Giants Trends To Know:

  • Cubs are 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Cubs are 6-1 in their last 7 overall.
  • Cubs are 4-1 in their last 5 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
  • Giants are 2-9 in their last 11 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Giants are 1-7 in their last 8 overall.
  • Under is 4-0 in Cubs last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Under is 13-6-1 in Giants last 20 games following a win.

With Stroman re-gaining his form and going against an offense struggling this badly, look for the hot-hitting Cubs to take full advantage.  Chicago has been crushing the baseball of late, and their speed should put added pressure on a woeful Giants’ defense.  Don’t be fooled by San Francisco’s victory last night, the struggles remain, and as such the Cubs represent good road value for Friday night.

Our Pick
Cubs
Will S. / Author

Will has been working with The Sports Geek since its early days back in 2010. He began as a soccer specialist, focusing on detailed reports for major international competitions, including the World Cup and European Championships. Since then, he has produced weekly pick articles on both the NFL and English Premier League, while also contributing blog posts on the NHL, MLB, and even WWE wrestling. Will is also an avid sports bettor and daily fantasy player, always eager to share his thoughts and insight on anything going on in the world of sports.

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