San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers NLDS Game 3 Pick – MLB October 11, 2021

The San Francisco Giants and Los Angeles Dodgers have a date at Dodger Stadium for Game 3 in the NLDS. Through two games, the Giants and Dodgers split at Oracle Park in the Bay Area. The Giants opened the series with a 4-0 win behind a dominant performance from Logan Webb.

Webb fooled the Dodgers over 7.2 innings of work for 5 hits and no runs. Tyler Rogers and Camilo Doval closed the Dodgers out with a perfect 1.1 innings. The same couldn’t be said for the next game for the Giants. They struggled to find command on the mound. Kevin Gausman couldn’t keep it together.

Gausman was tagged for 4 hits and 4 earned runs through 5.1 innings. Zack Littell and Dominic Leone combined for 5 earned runs out of the bullpen. For a team that is reliable on the hill that wasn’t their day. The Giants will look to steal homefield advantage back at Dodger Stadium.

They’re in a tough spot now where two losses for the Dodgers at home would send them home without a fifth game back at Oracle Park. The Giants couldn’t afford to allow the Dodgers to wake up in Game 2, and now they’re going to have to deal with Max Scherzer in Game 3 at Dodger Stadium.

Scherzer has not been in his usual form, so maybe this is one where they can get to him? That said, he looked better in the Wild Card against the St. Louis Cardinals on October 6. Scherzer received the nod in the do-or-die game. The game ended on a 2-run bomb from Chris Taylor. That’s all the Dodgers needed to go to the NLDS where the Giants were waiting.

The Dodgers and Giants were in the midst of a heated divisional race this season. People waited and then waited some more on the Dodgers to take the NL West, which never happened, and the Giants were able to avoid the Wild Card.

It doesn’t matter now, as they both need two more wins to advance to the NLCS. We’ll see if homefield advantage comes into play, but they lost it after dropping Game 2. If the Dodgers hold serve at Dodger Stadium it’s all over. Alex Wood and Scherzer are scheduled for this big showdown on Monday night. Head below for our free Giants vs. Dodgers NLDS Game 3 pick on October 11, 2021.

San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Live Odds and Betting History:

The following odds are courtesy of BetOnline:

Teams Spread Moneyline Total
San Francisco Giants +1.5 (-125) +181 Over 7 (-115)
LA Dodgers -1.5 (+105) -197 Under 7 (-105)
Team Data San Francisco Giants LA Dodgers
Overall Record 108-56 108-57
Away/Home Record 53-28 59-23
Batting Average .246 .241
Batting Average Away/Home .242 .241
Runs Per 9 5.05 5.23
Team ERA 3.26 3.02
Team ERA Away/Home 3.21 2.98

Giants vs. Dodgers Prediction:

Max Scherzer didn’t close out the regular season in the best of form. He allowed 10 earned runs in his final 10.1 innings in the regular season. This was after Scherzer was on fire.

He was sizzling hot from August 26 to September 18 without a run allowed in five games. Against the Padres and Reds on September 12 and September 18, Scherzer allowed just 3 hits between those two attempts.

Then he fell off against the Rockies and Padres. I will give Scherzer a pass for 5 runs at Coors Field. That’s not an easy place to pitch. Scherzer came back with 11 hits and 5 earned runs allowed versus the Padres on September 29.

That was a tough one, there’s no escaping that. Scherzer was able to respond with 1 earned run versus the Cardinals in the Wild Card on October 6. He wasn’t getting through innings quickly, though, so it wasn’t a perfect attempt for Scherzer.


San Francisco Giants vs. LA Dodgers Betting Trends:

Giants

  • Record (Last 10): 8-2
  • 21-5 overall in their previous 26 games after a day off
  • 4-1 overall in their previous five games as an underdog
  • 5-1 overall in their previous six games after scoring 2 or fewer runs
  • 7-2 overall in their previous nine divisional postseason games on the road
  • 1-4 overall in their previous five games as an underdog
  • Alex Wood ERA (Last 3): 1.38

Dodgers

  • Record (Last 10): 8-2
  • 5-1 overall in their previous six postseason games
  • 8-2 overall in their previous ten divisional postseason games at Dodger Stadium
  • 4-1 overall in their previous five divisional postseason games
  • 43-12 overall in their previous 55 games
  • OVER is 6-0-1 in their previous seven games versus a left-handed starter
  • Max Scherzer ERA (Last 3): 5.82

Scherzer is back home at Dodger Stadium where he has posted an ERA of 2.31 and a 0.78 WHIP this season. This has also been a San Francisco lineup that he’s dominated. Note that the Dodgers are hitting .134 with a .185 OBP versus Schezer in 104 at-bats.

The Dodgers’ offense is going to be seeing a pitcher they’re familiar with tonight. Former Dodger, Alex Wood, spent four years with the organization as early as last year. He did the Dodgers no good a year ago, as he finished with an ERA of 6.39 in the regular season.

Wood did show up out of the bullpen, though. He had a 1.39 ERA in 8.1 innings as a reliever. That was helpful, but the Dodgers weren’t interested in re-signing him. In his time on the opposite side against this lineup, it hasn’t gone particularly well.

The Dodgers are hitting .276 with solid power numbers. They’ve racked up 10 home runs and 16 RBIs in 109 at-bats versus Wood. There are seven players on the Dodgers’ roster hitting better than .286 against him. The Dodgers know his stuff by now and shouldn’t be offering anything they haven’t seen before.

Wood hasn’t pitched since September 29, so he should be fresh, though rust could be a problem. He wasn’t great on the road this season, as Wood recorded an ERA of 4.20 and a 1.38 WHIP versus a 3.58 ERA and 1.04 WHIP at Oracle Park. I could see the Dodgers getting ahead against Wood, and then maintaining a lead throughout for a 5-2 or 5-3 win in Game 3.

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Giants vs. Dodgers Pick
LA DODGERS -1.5
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of TheSportsGeek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at TheSportsGeek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, NHL, and horse racing. Prior to writing for TheSportsGeek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily only at TheSportsGeek.

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