Seattle Mariners at Oakland Athletics MLB Pick – July 17th

Can’t stop, won’t stop! We picked up another win last night, our fifth straight winner, and our twelfth win in our last seventeen bets. That is north of 70% winners this month! We stayed hot by taking advantage of a free money situation last night at Coors Field. Somehow, the game total last night was a borderline absurd, fourteen and a half runs in the Rockies and Giants game. That is one of the highest totals I have seen all year, and it felt more like a football line than a baseball number.

Yeah, both starting pitchers had been bad this season, but the Giants are one of the worst hitting teams in the game, and to score fifteen runs, both teams have to score nearly every inning. It was a sucker line intended to trick the squares into taking the over, something the vast majority of the public ended up taking. I didn’t fall for it though, and jumped on the under, and felt like I was stealing.

If you were to glance at the box score, you might think this game barely went under as it finished at an 8-4 final score. But in reality, this game had a total of four runs scored heading into the ninth inning. A bunch of craziness ensued after that with the teams combining for eight runs in the ninth and tenth innings, but in the end, we still easily cashed our ticket.

That’s how much of a lock this bet was. That the worst-case scenario played out, extra innings with a bunch of runs scoring, and we still won the bet by two and a half runs. I can’t blame the books for posting numbers like this one as your average tourist is still going to fire on the over most of the time. Making the bet a profitable one for the books, and a profitable one for the sharps as we take advantage of the public’s ignorance. For today’s bet, we will head to the Bay Area where the Athletics host the Mariners.

The Seattle Mariners are in Oakland Wednesday for game two of a quick two-game set with the A’s, hoping to fend off the sweep. The Mariners have fallen on tough times as they have lost eight out of their last nine games. Seattle is expected to be very active trading away veterans before the July 31st trade deadline so you have to wonder if this is the last time we will see guys like Dee Gordon, Domingo Santana, or Kyle Seager in a Mariners uniform.

For the A’s they are red-hot as they are 8-2 in the month of July and suddenly find themselves right in the mix for the playoffs in the American League. The A’s are currently tied with the Cleveland Indians for the second wild-card spot in the league.

Starting for the Mariners is Erik Swanson (1-5 8.04 ERA) and for the A’s it is Homer Bailey (7-6 4.80 ERA). The game total over-under is set at ten runs. The A’s are -185 home favorites. First pitch is scheduled for 12:37 PM PST from Ring Central in Oakland.

When the Oakland A’s made the move to acquire Homer Bailey this week it signaled that they are going to be buyers this year at the deadline. While Bailey is not a great arm, he has actually been fairly awful the last couple of seasons, it showed that the A’s are pursuing pieces to win now, not build for the future.

That seems like the no-brainer move as they are playing well right now and are very much in contention, but with Oakland GM Billy Beane famous for trading away talent mid-season, you had to wonder what he was going to do this year. But when you look at Bailey, I am very concerned that he has the ability to be an impact pitcher in the American League.

Almost always, when a pitcher goes from the NL to the AL, they struggle. It is just much harder to navigate around the designated hitter in the AL, and you don’t get that auto out with the pitcher once every three innings. And when you look at Bailey’s results, he has been awful no matter which league he is pitching in.

This season his ERA is nearly five runs, his first season in the AL after spending more than a decade in the NL. He has allowed four runs or more in a game seven times in eighteen starts. And those are actually better results than he has posted recently in the NL as his ERA has been north of six runs in each of the last three seasons. The guy has given up twelve homers in just ninety innings pitched, no pun intended.

The Mariners will start Eric Swanson today.  Swanson started the season in the big leagues and got absolutely hammered. Swanson had an ERA of over eight runs in this his first season in the majors. He was sent to triple-A where he put up slightly better numbers, an ERA of 5.55, and was called up this week to rejoin the team. Swanson has gotten blasted for eleven home runs in just thirty-one innings pitched.

This game is going to get ugly. The A’s are going to punish the rookie, Eric Swanson. This guy just doesn’t have major league level stuff just yet. He is a fairly highly touted prospect, but he can’t seem to keep the ball in the park. And the A’s have a lot of pop as they are 6th in the game in home runs. You can expect a couple of balls to leave the park today.

And when you look at Homer Bailey, this guy has been awful for several years now, and I don’t expect big results out of him in Oakland. Ring Central tends to be a pitcher’s park, but we are going to see some crooked numbers hit the scoreboard today. I think both starters give up several runs, and with the Mariners having a terrible bullpen, I see this game gliding to the over with ease.

So, I will take my stand on the game total and take the over ten runs. I know Oakland is going to run the score up, and I would be shocked to see Bailey shut down this still somewhat scary Mariners lineup. Give me the over ten runs today on getaway day in Oakland!

The Bet: Over 10 runs at -110

My Pick
OVER 10
Jason Gray / Author

Jason is a true Las Vegas insider as he has called the sports betting capital of the world his home for sixteen years. Jason started out his career in gaming by running the biggest poker tournaments in the world and managing some of the biggest sportsbooks on the strip. Jason has transitioned out of casino operations and has been covering sports betting for the sports geek for just over two years. His main focus is on baseball, college basketball, and the NFL