Sometimes even mother nature seems to be betting against us. Last night we took the over eight and a half runs in the Mets and Reds game. The game couldn’t have possibly started any better for us as Mets starter Jason Vargas immediately got hammered. He gave up multiple hits and left the game with runners on second and third with just one out after only fourteen pitches. But why did he leave the game? Because it started raining and the rain delay forced Vargas out of the game.
All told, Vargas was charged with three runs in just one-third of an inning of work. That is about as good as it gets when you are betting an over. But with the rain giving the Mets ample time to change their mind about Vargas being in the game, they decided to pull him out, and the Mets bullpen actually did a serviceable job at holding the Reds back the rest of the day, and we lost a bet we probably should have won.
It was a frustrating way to lose as the main reason we bet the over was because Vargas has been so terrible, and we ended up only getting fourteen pitches in against him. It’s back to the drawing board today as we take a look at the game between the Texas Rangers and the Seattle Mariners.
The Seattle Mariners are in Texas Wednesday for the rubber match of a three-game series against the Rangers. The Mariners took game one of the series 4-3 in twelve innings, and the Rangers bounced back last night to tie the series up at one game apiece with an 11-4 drubbing of Seattle. The Mariners badly need the win tonight to keep pace with an Oakland A’s team that has forgotten how to lose recently.
Starting today for the Mariners is Marco Gonzalez (12-6 3.46 ERA), and for Texas, it is Yovani Gallardo (6-1 6.51 ERA). The Mariners are big -154 road favorites. The game total over-under is set at eleven runs. First pitch is scheduled for 11:05 AM PST from Globe Life Park in Arlington, Texas.
Yesterday was a sobering affair for Seattle fans. It felt like an end to an era. King Felix Hernandez has struggled all season long and to be completely honest has been one of the worst starters in the American League this year. But last night was painful to watch. Just a couple of days after Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto claimed he would be evaluating Hernandez’s performances very closely, he was hung out to dry as he got hammered for eleven runs.
Most teams are going to pull a struggling pitcher long before they are going to give up eleven runs. But it seemed like last night, the Mariners wanted to see what Felix had left in his heart, not his arm. And sadly, it looks like that tank might be dry. It is shocking to even say out loud, but the Mariners need to take Felix out of the rotation at this point. Once the only glimmer of hope for a lot of bad Mariners teams over the years, now that the Mariners are finally in contention, Felix just doesn’t have anything else to give.
One guy that is pitching well for Seattle this year is Marco Gonzalez. Gonzalez has been solid all season long and has been especially good recently. In July, Gonzalez went 4-0 in four starts with a 1.78 ERA. The young man has done a lot of winning this season. His twelve wins are the best on the team, and the Mariners seem to win a lot when he starts.
In his twenty-two starts this season the Mariners are 15-7. He had won five straight starts before losing his last start to the Toronto Blue Jays. In that game, he didn’t pitch all that bad as he lasted seven innings and gave up four runs. In his lone start against Texas this year, he pitched six and two-thirds of an innings and didn’t allow an earned run and the Mariners won the game.
Yovani Gallardo has had an interesting season this year. He doesn’t pitch very well, but he always seems to win. Gallardo has given up thirty-five ruins in his forty-seven innings of work this season, that is good for a 6.51 ERA. In six of his eight starts, he has allowed three earned runs or more. But the Rangers always seem to support him as they are 7-1 in his eight starts since he joined this Rangers team on June 17th.
What is going on for Yovani Gallardo just can’t last. This guy has gotten at least nine runs of support in five out of his eight starts this season. They are averaging nine and a half runs of support per start for him. That just isn’t sustainable, and I see that streak coming to an end for the Rangers tonight.
On paper, this is a mismatch. Gonzalez has been much better than Gallardo, and the Mariners are much better than the Rangers. Yesterday’s Felix Hernandez nightmare notwithstanding, this Mariners team is the far superior squad, and I see them showing it tonight.
In a game where a lot of runs are likely to be scored, the game total is eleven, I don’t mind looking at more aggressive betting options. When lots of runs are up on the board covering that run line is that much easier. We can back Seattle laying a run and a half at -105. That is a full fifty cent premium, and I don’t plan on passing up on it today.
I expect Gallardo to give up a bunch of runs as usual, but this time his Rangers team won’t be able to bail him out with double-digit run support. I see the Mariners winning this one and winning it big. Give me the Seattle Mariners on the run line, laying a run and a half at -105 today in game three!