Seattle Mariners vs Miami Marlins Pick – Major League Baseball May 1, 2022

The red-hot Miami Marlins are looking for the sweep over the suddenly slumping Seattle Mariners today in game 3 of this 3-game series. Miami continues to overachieve, and they ride an NL best 7-game winning streak into today’s series finale with Seattle. Going back to last week, the Marlins have won 8 of their last 9 games as they try to catch the first place New York Mets in the NL East Division title race.

For Seattle, the Mariners started this road trip tied for the best record in the American League, but after a 7-2 homestand, the M’s have struggled on the road. Seattle will try to snap a 4-game losing streak in this one, and win or lose, this will already be the Mariner’s 3rd series loss on the road this season, after dropping the opening 2 games of this set to the Marlins.

The line opened with the Marlins laying (-120) and the early action has come in on the home team, shifting the number towards Miami, to where it stands now with the Marlins laying (-133). The game total is one of the lowest of the year for any game, sitting at just 6.5 runs with an elite starting pitching matchup between the Mariners Logan Gilbert and the Marlins Sandy Alcantara. First pitch is scheduled for 10:40 AM PST from LoanDepot Park in Miami.

Seattle Mariners (11-10)

The Seattle Mariners have lots of talent on their roster this year after finishing up a multi-year rebuild prior to the start of this season. There is more optimism surrounding this franchise than there has been in nearly a decade and while I do project the Mariners as a playoff team, they are very young, and they are going to have patches of inconsistency like we have seen out of them on this road trip.

To make matters worse for the M’s, Mitch Haniger, a guy that can seemingly never stay healthy, is again on the IL after spraining his ankle in his first at-bat of this series. Haniger hadn’t played in 2 weeks prior to spraining his ankle, as he was out with COVID-19, and it has to be disheartening for Mariners fans, as Haniger is the heart and soul of this Mariners lineup, and he just can’t stay on the field long enough to make a real impact.

Seattle would much rather have Haniger in the lineup today than play without him, but the Mariners do have some young guys that are playing at a very high level that should be ready to make up for the lost production. Shortstop JP Crawford is having a breakout season, slashing an impressive .360 at the plate and when you add in his Gold Glove level defense at short, his 1.6 WAR leads the team.

The other guy that Seattle is going to lean on while they wait for Haniger to return is 3rd baseman Ty France. France was the American League Player of the Week last week, and on the year, he is hitting .337 with 21 runs batted in, the second-most in the league, trailing only the Guardians Jose Ramirez. The bats have gone cold on this road trip and the Mariners would love nothing more to get back on track today with their young budding superstar on the mound in Logan Gilbert.

Logan Gilbert

If you haven’t gotten a chance to watch Logan Gilbert pitch yet this season, you are missing out. Gilbert was one of the top prospects in the Mariners farm system and finally caught on with the Big League club last season as a member of the Mariner’s starting rotation. Gilbert had some expected rookie struggles, but he hit his stride in September, where he made 6 starts and posted a stellar 2.70 ERA.

That momentum has carried into this season, as Gilbert has been the best pitcher in the American League and should be a lock to take home the pitcher of the month honors now that April has officially come and gone.

In 4 April starts, Gilbert went 3-0 with an absolutely absurd 0.40 ERA. More importantly for these playoff starved Mariners fans, Seattle is a perfect 4-0 in his starts this season, and going back to the end of last season, the Mariners have won 9 of his last 10 outings.

Gilbert hasn’t allowed an earned run since his first start of the year and was dominant in his last start, completely shutting down the Tampa Bay Rays to the tune of 5.2 innings pitched, allowing zero earned runs, on only 2 hits, while striking out 7. Logan was the 14th overall draft pick back in 2018 and at age-24, he could be both the ace of today, and the ace of tomorrow, for the Mariners.

Today’s Starting Pitching Matchup

Logan Gilbert

  • (3-0)
  • 0.40 ERA
  • 8.9 K/9 Ratio
  • 0.85 WHIP
Sandy Alcantara

  • (2-0)
  • 1.78 ERA
  • 7.1 K/9 Ratio
  • 1.18 WHIP

Miami Marlins (12-8)

The NL East should be the most competitive top to bottom division in the National League this season. But at least here in the early goings of the year, the NL East is all over the place. The Mets have the best record in the league, and the Marlins have used this recent surge to get to 4 games over .500, but the Phillies and the Braves, teams that are both expected to contend for the postseason, have not played very well, as neither team has a winning record.

At some point I would expect both Atlanta and Philadelphia to play better, the question mark for me in the NL East, are these Miami Marlins. Expectations were varied coming into this season on Miami, as they certainly have some talent, particularly on the mound, but they don’t have as much talent on their roster as the rest of these NL East contenders do.

They are playing quality baseball at the moment, but their bats are weak, as their combined 16 home runs are 21st in the majors and their team batting average of just .235 certainly leaves something to be desired. If you want one guy to target at the plate that has what it takes to carry this team to contention, look no further than 24-year-old Jazz Chisholm Jr. Chisholm Jr showed flashes of greatness last year in his first full season in the show, and this year he is having a career year with a .298 batting average, 4 homers, and 15 RBI in just 64 at-bats.

Sandy Alcantara

The Marlins pride themselves on the mound and their starting rotation rivals the Atlanta Braves for the best young rotation in the majors. All of these guys are young and each of them have nasty stuff.

Pablo Lopez leads MLB in ERA at 0.39. Jesus Luzardo is finally starting to look like the guy everyone thought he was going to be a couple of years ago, as he has been strong. And even Trevor Rogers and Elieser Hernandez, who both haven’t been great, are players that are much better than their current stats might lead you to believe and are going to be quality starters this season for Miami.

But the unquestioned leader of this Marlins rotation is Sandy Alcantara. Alcantara is somehow still only 26-years-old despite this being his 6th year pitching in the majors. He was an All-Star back in 2019 and has been able to improve in each of his last 2 seasons. This year, he is pitching at a true ace level with a 2-0 record and 1.78 ERA. In his last 2 starts combined he has worked a total of 14 innings and has allowed just 1 earned run.

Seattle Mariners vs Miami Marlins Betting Odds And Team Statistics

The following odds are courtesy of BetOnline:

Teams Money line Total Run Line
Seattle Mariners (+113) Over 6.5 (-110) +1.5 (-195)
Miami Marlins (-123) Under 6.5 (-110) -1.5 (+170)
Team Data Seattle Mariners Miami Marlins
Overall Record 11-10 12-8
Home Record 7-2 6-3
Away Record 4-8 6-5
Runs Per Game 3.30 4.50
Earned Runs Against Per Game 3.28 3.10
Hits Per Game 6.80 9.00
K’s Per Game 7.10 7.00

Seattle Mariners vs Miami Marlins Prediction:

If you aren’t someone that regularly follows young prospects, you might be surprised that this game total is sitting at 6.5 runs right now. Normally we see a run total this low reserved for matchups between guys like Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom, or Corbin Burnes. And while the starters in today’s game don’t have the same name recognition or long history of success as the guys I just mentioned, at least right now, they are pitching on a similar level.

And honestly, anyone that follows the game closely isn’t remotely surprised, as both of these kids were can’t miss prospects, that were always going to be studs on the mound. I am almost never going to take the under on a total this low, but this game has 3-2 written all over it, so the number is a sharp one for sure, as this is going to be a low-scoring and very competitive contest.

Seattle Mariners vs Miami Marlins Betting Trends:

Seattle Mariners
  • Seattle is 1-4 SU in their last 5 games.
  • Seattle is 2-6 SU in their last 8 games against Miami.
  • Seattle is 2-8 SU in their last 10 games on the road.
  • Seattle is 0-5 SU in their last 5 games when playing on the road against Miami.
  • The total has gone OVER in 7 of Seattle’s last 8 games against an opponent in the National League.
Miami Marlins
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami’s last 5 games.
  • Miami is 7-0 SU in their last 7 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Miami’s last 11 games against Seattle.
  • Miami is 8-3 SU in their last 11 games at home.
  • Miami is 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against Seattle.

This is one of those games that could go either way. You could make a compelling case that the Marlins are deservedly favorites, as they are much better at home, than they are on the road, and they are clearly the hotter team in this matchup, as they have won 7 straight and the Mariners have lost their last 4 games. But in order to agree that Miami should be favored, you first have to get around the fact that the Mariners just don’t lose when Logan Gilbert pitches, and that is something that I just can’t dismiss lightly.

For me, to be considered a true ace, you can’t just post good stats. There are lots of guys that have good numbers, that I don’t think are aces. A real ace is a guy that steps up and gets you a win when your team really needs it.

Sometimes that is late in the season in a pennant chase. Other times, that is in the playoffs in a must-win game. But one area that we don’t hear talked about a lot, that I see as the true mark of a leader on the mound, is being a stopper, that can give their team a lift when they are struggling. The Mariners need Logan Gilbert today and everything I have seen from this guy in his short stint with Seattle, tells me that he is absolutely that kind of pitcher.

There will be a time, sooner rather than later, where you are never going to be able to get dog money on Seattle when Logan Gilbert is starting. The only reason we can get dog money on the M’s now, is because most casual fans and bettors still don’t know his name. They will.

I see Logan Gilbert as a dark horse Cy Young Award candidate and as soon as the word is out on him, we are going to see these odds on him skyrocket. I will take advantage of that public ignorance of just how great Logan Gilbert is right now and back the Mariners in a high value spot, as road underdogs.

I doubt Seattle will do much against Sandy Alcantara, and we are going to need to run good in key spots in this game, but at the end of the day the value side of this game is on Seattle and that is where I will take my stand. Give me the Mariners and the juice today as they sneak in a win in the series finale against the Marlins.

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Seattle Mariners vs Miami Marlins Pick
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Jason Gray / Author

Jason is a true Las Vegas insider as he has called the sports betting capital of the world his home for sixteen years. Jason started out his career in gaming by running the biggest poker tournaments in the world and managing some of the biggest sportsbooks on the strip. Jason has transitioned out of casino operations and has been covering sports betting for the sports geek for just over two years. His main focus is on baseball, college basketball, and the NFL

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