St. Louis Cardinals vs. Atlanta Braves Pick – MLB July 4, 2022

The St. Louis Cardinals and Atlanta Braves engage in what should be an entertaining series at Truist Park. The Cardinals are coming off an appearance on Sunday Night Baseball in Philadelphia.

That didn’t go well, as Zack Wheeler was in Cy Young form with a dominant performance. Wheeler allowed 4 hits and no earned runs through 7 innings.

The Cardinals never looked comfortable at the plate in the primetime matchup. They avoided getting swept, but lost two of three games at Citizens Bank Park.

BREWERS UP BY TWO GAMES
Milwaukee has a two-game lead on the Cards following a 2-0 win over the Pittsburgh Pirates on Sunday. The Cardinals were unable to hold the deficit at one game with the loss.

The Brewers are leading in the NL Central, but they likely don’t pull away quickly. They have the edge, though I’m not opposed to the Cardinals winning the division. It should be close in September.

St. Louis holds a record of 44-37 going into Atlanta for this four-game series.

Atlanta is coming off a tough 4-3 loss to the Reds yesterday afternoon. It was an opportunity to complete a sweep, but the Braves had to settle for two wins in three outings.

The Braves trail the Mets by 3.5 games in the NL East. They’re down, but have reeled them in nicely after getting behind to open the season. Atlanta can’t feel too bad about where they are right now.

Dakota Hudson is a starter in the rotation that must step up if the Cardinals want to clear the Brewers. He is scheduled to start for the Cards, with Kyle Wright countering at Truist Park.

Head below for our free Cardinals vs. Braves prediction on July 4, 2022.

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Atlanta Braves Live Betting Odds:

The following odds are courtesy of Bovada:
Team Spread Moneyline Total
St. Louis Cardinals +1.5 (-135) +141 Over 9 (-110)
Atlanta Braves -1.5 (+115) -170 Under 9 (-110)
Team Data St. Louis Cardinals Atlanta Braves
Overall Record 44-37 46-34
Away/Home Record 20-21 24-17
Batting Average .250 .246
Batting Average Away/Home .247 .249
Runs Per 9 4.82 4.80
Team ERA 3.81 3.74
Team ERA Away/Home 4.10 4.02

Cardinals vs. Braves Prediction:

The Cardinals are waiting for Dakota Hudson to shake off his recent struggles and get hot. He hasn’t been bad this season, but Hudson didn’t do his best work in June.

Hudson tailed off with an ERA of 4.58 last month.

Hudson posted an ERA of 2.75 and a 3.60 ERA in April and then May. There were signs in April that Hudson might run into trouble.

He recorded a WHIP of 1.72 in May, so he was putting runners on base. Batters weren’t finishing against Hudson then, but they are most recently.

MURKY WATERS
Hudson has notched an ERA of 6.28 and a 1.81 WHIP in his latest three performances. Opponents reached base at a .400 clip. He was doing this in May, but offenses weren’t able to finish with RISP.

It’s catching up to Hudson as of late, though. He needs to get back on track at Truist Park. The road hasn’t been the best place for Hudson this season.

Hudson has notched an ERA of 4.57 and a 1.45 WHIP through 42 innings on the road.

The Braves are an underrated offensive unit. This was the same last year, and they went on to win a World Series. Atlanta is second with 1.53 home runs per game and third with a .755 OPS.

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Atlanta Braves Betting Trends:

Cardinals

  • Record (Last 10): 4-6
  • 4-0 overall in their previous four games after scoring 2 or fewer runs
  • 1-4 overall in their previous five first game of a series
  • OVER is 10-4 in their previous 14 games versus a right-handed starter
  • OVER is 3-1-1 in their previous five games on a Monday
  • OVER is 14-5 in their previous 19 games at Atlanta

Braves

  • Record (Last 10): 6-4
  • 11-3 overall in their previous 14 games at home
  • 7-2 overall in their previous nine first game of a series
  • OVER is 6-2 in their previous eight games versus a starting pitcher with a WHIP worse than 1.30
  • OVER is 9-4 in their previous 13 games after a loss
  • OVER is 5-2 in their previous seven games after their opponent scored 2 or fewer runs

  • I have confidence in the Braves swinging the bats well versus Hudson. They are coming off a poor performance against the Reds, and this should be a bounce-back spot for them.

    The Braves are hitting .280 with a .360 OBP in 26 at-bats vs Hudson.

    Expect the Cards to be better at the plate as well. Kyle Wright has to deal with a St. Louis offense that was silent last night. Wright has been solid, but going into Monday with an ERA of 4.91 and a 1.58 WHIP in his latest three starts.

    Despite a slow night, the Cardinals are fifth in the majors with 4.81 runs per 9 innings. They’ve been in good shape, with a .253 batting average.

    In their latest two meetings, they’ve gotten into some entertaining matchups. The bats were taking good hacks at the ball, with 7-4 and 8-4 finals in favor of the Braves. We should see another OVER game in this series tonight.

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    Cardinals vs. Braves Pick
    OVER 9
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of TheSportsGeek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at TheSportsGeek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, NHL, and horse racing. Prior to writing for TheSportsGeek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily only at TheSportsGeek.

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