St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Pick – MLB July 28, 2020

    Carlos Martinez (0-0, 0.00 ERA) vs. Homer Bailey (0-0, 0.00 ERA)

The St. Louis Cardinals and Minnesota Twins begin a short two-game interleague series on Tuesday at Target Field. Both clubs had the day off on Monday following a 5-1 loss for the Cardinal against the Pittsburgh Pirates on Sunday, and a 14-2 romp in favor of the Twins over the White Sox.

The Twins were in good form, as the offense torched Gio Gonzalez early. They tagged Gio with 7 hits and 6 earned runs in 3.2 innings. Minnesota took a 9-0 lead into the bottom of the 2nd frame. That was about all for Sunday, with the Twins extending their lead to 14-2 and an easy win in the series finale. The Twins won two of three games against the White Sox in Chicago.

Their performance on Sunday was prototypical Twins from last season. The Twins won the AL Central with a record of 101-61. They were clear of the Cleveland Indians by eight games to make it an easy AL Central title for the Twins. They are back and looking for more in this shortened Major League Baseball season.

We are hoping that all 60 games and a playoff can be played this summer and fall. A coronavirus outbreak in the Marlins’ clubhouse, and a developing situation for the Reds in Cincinnati puts some doubt into things, though. That said, this had to be expected when preparations were being made to start the season.

Like I said on Monday, this is just going to be a way of life for the foreseeable future unfortunately. Teams are going to have to play things day-by-day and go from there, similar to other businesses that have close contact. The virus is going to run its course. If multiple teams have widespread outbreaks at the same time, then that may prove to be too much to control. However, I don’t think Major League Baseball is going to be scared off by one or two teams.

The Cardinals and Twins will play tonight at Target Field. We do know that much. Former All-Star, Carlos Martinez, is scheduled to make his first start since 2018 on Tuesday for the Cardinals. Homer Bailey is expected to counter for the Twins. He settled down last season after flirting with an exit from the majors because of poor pitching. Head below for our free St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins pick for July 28, 2020 in MLB.

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins MLB Baseball Betting Odds:

Spread:

  • Cardinals +1.5 (-170)
  • Twins -1.5 (+150)
Moneyline:

  • Cardinals (+116)
  • Twins (-126)
Total Points:

  • Over 10 (-115)
  • Under 10 (-105)

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St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Prediction:

When Carlos Martinez was healthy, he was a load to deal with for opposing hitters. He made 48 appearances as a reliever out of the bullpen last season, but didn’t make a start. Martinez returned from his shoulder injury and was efficient.

The Cardinals were careful with him and didn’t want to give his arm too much work. He was sharp with a 3.17 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 48.1 innings. As a full-time starter, Martinez posted ERA’s of 3.01, 3.04, 3.64, 3.11 before suffering the shoulder injury.

Martinez has been lights out at home in St. Louis, though problems have followed him on the road as a visitor. As a reliever last season, Martinez recorded an ERA of 1.82 and 0.93 WHIP at home. Conversely, Martinez regressed significantly on the road, with a 4.56 ERA and 1.44 WHIP.

The same goes for 2017 and 2018 as a full-time starting pitcher, as Martinez notched ERA’s of 4.02 and 3.64 on the road. He gets a lethal offense in the Twins on the road for his first start on the hill since 2018. The Twins are first in the major leagues with 9 runs per game over their first three games of the season.

If Martinez doesn’t have a flawless debut, the Cardinals might be able to find a win still. The back of the rotation will be utilized on Tuesday for the Twins. Homer Bailey reached his full potential at this point in his career last year. He posted an ERA of 4.57 and 1.32 WHIP between the Reds and Twins. For Bailey, who had ERA’s eclipsing 6.00 in three straight seasons and 5.00 in four straight, he was running out of options in the majors.

A change of scenery to the Twins helped, but I don’t believe he is suddenly going to turn into something special. He could very well regress to 2017-2018 form. And if an ERA of 4.57 is the most the Twins are going to get out of Bailey, that’s going to go down as another successful year, which isn’t saying much.

The Cards have had a lot of success against Bailey, with a .336 batting average and .377 OBP. In 182 at-bats, they’ve connected for 9 home runs, including three Cardinals that have hit at least two home runs versus Bailey. I foresee a high-scoring contest between the Cardinals and Twins at Target Field. The OVER carries some value here.

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OVER 10
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of The Sports Geek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at The Sports Geek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, and the NHL. Prior to writing for The Sports Geek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily at The Sports Geek.