Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles MLB Pick – May 12th

For the second time this week we were in line for a dog money payout when the closer came into the game and blew the game for us. It happened earlier in the week when Craig Kimbrel blew a save for Boston and it happened again last night as the Los Angeles Angels held a 4-2 lead, good enough for the win and run line cover, that would have paid out +115.

I mentioned in my pick yesterday that I loved betting against Lance Lynn this year and he did not disappoint last night. Lynn lasted just four and two thirds of an inning and gave up four earned runs. The Angels looked like they were well on their way to the win as they hit the ninth inning with a two-run lead. Unfortunately, the Angels decided to leave Justin Anderson in the game for the ninth after he threw a three up three down eighth, and the decision back fired. Not only did the bullpen blow the run line in the ninth, they blew the entire game and the Twins stole the game 5-4. It was a frustrating way to lose. There is nothing worse than having the game locked up for eight innings only to se it dashed in the ninth. For today’s pick I will take a look at the game between the Baltimore Orioles and the Tampa Bay Rays.

The Tampa Bay Rays are in Baltimore Saturday for game two of a three game series with the Orioles. The Orioles used a late surge in game one to take the series lead, powered by a two homer and six RBI effort from Manny Machado. Tampa Bay has fallen on rough times as they have lost four straight games. The Orioles have won three straight games after snapping a seven-game losing streak earlier in the week.

Starting today for Baltimore is David Hess (0-0 0.00 ERA) and for Tampa Bay it is Chris Archer (2-2 5.32 ERA). The Rays are -145 road favorites. The game total over-under is set at nine runs. First pitch is scheduled for 12:05 PM PST from Camden Yards in Baltimore.

Chris Archer really struggled to start the season. The Rays were playing bad and Archer was not performing how Tampa Bay had hoped he would coming into the season. Archer has been the next big thing now for several years and he has struggled to pitch like the ace that Tampa keeps dreaming he will become. Through his first four starts of the season Archer was just 1-1 with a 7.84 ERA.

He has settled down a lot since then and has seen his ERA drop after his last four starts. In three of his last four starts Archer have given up two earned runs or less. And he finally stopped walking so many guys and it has really shown as his results have been much better. The Rays will need a big effort from Archer tonight in game one of a double-header if they want to stop the bleeding on this losing streak.

Starting today for Baltimore is David Hess. The youngster will be making his MLB debut. He has been a prospect that the Orioles have been waiting to try out at the major league level since they drafted him in the fifth round in 2014. Hess has had good results in the minors this year and was brought up to help both Orioles starting rotation and their bullpen.

Chris Archer is not the dominate ace that the Rays want him to be. But he is still a pretty good major league level pitcher. It is a testament to just how inconsistent the Rays have been that Archer is only a small favorite against a bad Baltimore team starting a guy in his MLB debut. The Orioles are 28th in the majors in runs scored this year. Archer is pitching better as of late and this is a great spot to keep that momentum going as Baltimore has really struggled at the plate this season.

I looked at the run line for this game, but Hess is just too much of an unknown entity to have much confidence for or against him. So, I will lay some wood and take the favorite today. It is a little bit more wood than I normally like to lay, but I feel strongly that Archer is turning his life around recently and this is a great opportunity to stay hot against a light swinging Orioles club. Give me the Tampa Bay Rays on the road at -145 today!

The Bet: Tampa Bay Rays -145


Jason Gray / author

Jason is a true Las Vegas insider as he has called the sports betting capital of the world his home for sixteen years. Jason started out his career in gaming by running the biggest poker tournaments in the world and managing some of the biggest sportsbooks on the strip. Jason has transitioned out of casino operations and has been covering sports betting for the sports geek for just over two years. His main focus is on baseball, college basketball, and the NFL