Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees Pick – MLB October 3, 2021

One more day of Major League Baseball before the postseason begins on Tuesday with the American League Wild Card, and then the National League Wild Card the next day. Note that the World Series is expected to begin on October 26. Even though there’s only one day left in the regular season, there are still a lot of questions that have to be answered.

The Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees close out this three-game series at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees are stumbling across the finish line after suffering a 4-3 and 12-2 loss. The Yankees weren’t even close yesterday, as Jordan Montgomery had nothing to give in his start yesterday.

Montgomery was tagged for 6 hits and 7 earned runs across 2.2 innings of work. That was essentially the game, with the Tampa bullpen game working to perfection. Shane Baz opened the game and went 2.2 innings. He was pulled after allowing a hit and run. Despite clinching the American League crown, the Rays have not been gearing down.

They continue to play like every game is an elimination game, and that’s how you win a World Series. A year after getting bounced by the LA Dodgers in six games, I’d bet the Rays to win a seven-game series at the moment. You’d probably be getting good odds on the Rays over the Dodgers.

The Rays can finish off the season with a record of 101-61. They joined the San Francisco Giants and Dodgers as the only teams in the majors with at least 100 wins on the year. Another win to get to 101 would just be an added explanation point and message to the rest of the major leagues. Veteran Michael Wacha is expected to get the call for the Rays, while Jameson Taillon is going for the Yankees. Head below for our free Rays vs. Yankees pick on October 3, 2021.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees Live Odds and Betting History:

The following odds are courtesy of BetOnline:

Teams Spread Moneyline Total
Tampa Bay Rays +1.5 (-172) +113 Over 9 (-112)
NY Yankees -1.5 (+152) -123 Under 9 (-108)
Team Data Tampa Bay Rays NY Yankees
Overall Record 100-61 91-70
Away/Home Record 48-32 45-35
Batting Average .241 .236
Batting Average Away/Home .242 .231
Runs Per 9 5.42 4.51
Team ERA 3.71 3.77
Team ERA Away/Home 4.49 3.72

Rays vs. Yankees Prediction:

Win today and it won’t matter what other teams do that are currently racing with the Yankees. They can still get help from elsewhere and get into the postseason with a loss. However, that’s not the best plan of success. The Yankees have to wake and get to Michael Wacha this afternoon.

Wacha is going into Yankee Stadium off a standout showing against the Houston Astros. He allowed no hits and no runs across 5 innings. Wacha looked like the same guy that rose to prominence in the postseason years back with the St. Louis Cardinals. He was looking like the next Justin Verlander at that point of his career, but Wacha hit a wall in 2016.

Wacha posted an ERA of 5.09 and has never been able to fully recover. He’s been fine, but we haven’t seen the same level of consistency from Wacha. He recorded an ERA of 6.62 and a 1.56 WHIP. This season he hasn’t been able to bounce back, as Wacha carries a 5.26 ERA and 1.35 WHIP into the Bronx. He’s pitching for a spot on the postseason pitching staff.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees Betting Trends:


  • Record (Last 10): 7-3
  • 45-16 overall in their previous 61 games versus the AL East
  • 48-22 overall in their previous 70 games on a Sunday
  • 57-23 overall in their previous 80 games after a win
  • 7-2 overall in their previous nine games at Yankee Stadium
  • UNDER is 5-1 in their previous six games
  • Michael Wacha ERA (Last 3): 4.50


  • Record (Last 10): 7-3
  • 8-3 overall in their previous 11 games
  • 5-2 overall in their previous seven games versus AL East
  • 5-2 overall in their previous seven games after a loss
  • 4-1 overall in their previous five games versus a right-handed starter
  • 4-1 overall in their previous five games after allowing at least 5 runs
  • Jameson Taillon ERA (Last 3): 6.32

Wacha is coming off a strong start, but he’s been far too inconsistent. He could easily struggle today after mowing down the Astros.

Wacha is on the road for this one where he hasn’t had the best success. He’s carrying a shaky ERA of 6.05 and a 1.48 WHIP into Sunday afternoon. No surprise if he regresses in this spot. Jameson Taillon has an ERA of 4.40 and a 1.21 WHIP through 141 innings of work.

He’s been better at home where he has a 3.40 ERA and 1.06 WHIP as opposed to a 5.60 ERA and 1.40 WHIP on the road. His numbers aren’t spectacular, but he’s held up well with 3 or less earned runs in 11 of his previous 13 appearances.

The Yankees are saving Gerrit Cole for the tiebreaker game or Wild Card. Taillon has pitched well against the Rays in the past, so maybe it’s a good gameplan. The Rays are hitting .252 with 2 home runs in 47 at-bats.

They are playing with a lot of confidence and probably make Taillon work hard for an inning or two, but Wacha could easily blow up in this one. I’m on the Yankees to figure it out on the final day of the regular season.


Rays vs. Yankees Pick
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of TheSportsGeek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at TheSportsGeek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, NHL, and horse racing. Prior to writing for TheSportsGeek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily only at TheSportsGeek.

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