There is plenty of daytime baseball on which you can wager today, along with a five-game evening slate. One of the night games probably won’t draw many to their TV sets, but there is some betting value to be found. The Texas Rangers will head to the Motor City to begin a four-game weekend series against the Tigers on Thursday night.
Left-hander Martin Perez will make another start for the Rangers in this one, while the Tigers will counter with rookie right-hander Beau Brieske. Perez is in the midst of a stellar season in his second stint with the Rangers, while Brieske is getting a taste of major-league action for the first time in his young career.
In news that should surprise nobody that has followed the Tigers this season, the Rangers check-in as early favorites in this one. Oddsmakers have the visitors as -165 moneyline favorites in a game with an implied total of 8.5 runs.
Texas comes into this one with an underwhelming 29-33 record, but that’s still good for second place in the American League West. The Astros have opened up a 9.5-game lead in the supremely disappointing division, but the Rangers are still very much in the thick of the AL Wild Card hunt.
The Rangers were one of baseball’s biggest spenders this offseason, though their new acquisitions have struggled to find their footing. Corey Seager is slashing a disappointing .224/.289/.415, but he did hit his 14th homer of the year on Wednesday. He leads all big-league shortstops in that department.
Marcus Semien has been even worse, though he has shown signs of life so far in June. His slash line is awfully similar to Seager’s (.224/.287/.346), and he didn’t hit his first home run of the year until May 28th. However, he comes into tonight’s game with six dingers on the year, so he’s finally starting to get comfortable in his new digs.
Most importantly for Perez, the Tigers’ lineup has a total groundball rate of nearly 49 percent, which plays right into his strengths as a pitcher. Assuming he’s on his game, Perez should enjoy quite a few easy innings in this one against one of the most disappointing offenses in all of baseball.
The 2022 season has not been kind to the Tigers thus far, but they’re not actually in last place. Detroit’s 24-38 record is actually three games better than that of the Royals, so at least the Tigers have that going for them.
Detroit is just 3-7 over their last 10 games and riding a four-game skid coming into this one. They were just swept in three games by the White Sox and outscored 27-6 along the way.
Detroit’s organization is rich with quality prospects. The 24-year-old Brieske has struggled in his first stint in the majors, however, with a record of 1-5 through nine starts. His 4.34 ERA isn’t terrible, but his 4.85 SIERA says he’s probably gotten a little lucky to this point.
Brieske has looked good in his last two outings, both of which happened to come against quality foes. Two starts ago he held the Yankees’ mighty offense to just two runs on three hits across six innings. In his last start, Brieske shut out the vaunted Blue Jays over the course of 5.2 innings of work. The victory in his last outing was the first of his career.
Unfortunately for Brieske, his estimators say his batted ball luck will likely decline moving forward. Opposing hitters have a batting average on balls in play (BABIP) of just .246, which is well below the league average of .300.
Texas Rangers at Detroit Tigers MLB Game Pick
Obviously, you aren’t getting great bang for your buck betting on the Rangers’ -165 moneyline tonight. A $100 bet on that line would only net you a $60 profit, which probably isn’t worth the risk in a game as volatile as baseball is.
I typically take those kinds of betting trends with a grain of salt, but the pitching matchup does heavily favor the Rangers in this game. Perez and his groundballs will be a tough matchup for the Tigers’ groundball-heavy offense, so I’d expect Detroit to have a difficult time putting runs on the board yet again.
That’s nothing new for this team. The Tigers have mustered just 168 runs so far this season. That puts them a whopping 40 runs behind the next-worst offensive team, the Oakland A’s.
Bet the Rangers to improve upon what is already an awesome runline record in this one. Texas to win the ballgame by at least two runs is a solid value at +105 odds.
Texas Rangers at Detroit Tigers Betting Recap
- Moneyline: Rangers -165, Tigers +140
- Runline: Rangers -1.5 (+105), Tigers +1.5 (-125)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 runs (-115), Under 8.5 runs (-105)
- Pick: Rangers -1.5 (+105)