Tigers at White Sox – Free Pick September 10th

Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox (Total: 9.5)

Rick Porcello vs. Jose Quintana

For Detroit, it isn’t an overestimation to say that their so-far disappointing season will be either resurrected or buried depending upon the results of this critical four-game series starting tonight in the South Side.  The White Sox hold a three game edge with roughly 22 games to play in the season.  A game sweep by Chicago would effectively end the season for Detroit, while a Tiger sweep would make things very, very interesting.  However, first things first, let’s take a look at tonight’s game and see if we can find a winning wager.

The Tigers have completely dominated the Sox this season, winning seven in a row and eight of nine.  However, each time they have inflicted damage on their chief rival, they have turned around right afterwards and given the lead right back by losing to the lesser teams in the division.  Take these recent stats for example:  the Tigers are 3-12 in their last 15 road games against a left handed starter.  They are 1-5 in their last six games overall and 0-5 in their last five games as a road favorite.

Those are the prime stats to illustrate the problem in Detroit.  Good against good teams, but lousy enough against the lousy teams to find themselves needing a late push to secure a playoff berth.  Meanwhile, the White Sox have trends exactly the opposite:  5-0 in their last five games as an underdog, 12-2 in their last 14 home games as the underdog, and 24-8 in their last 32 home games overall.  All pretty impressive numbers.

In fact, nearly every single recent play trend is positive for Chicago and negative for Detroit… which presents the conundrum of tonight’s game.  Do you really want to put your money on Chicago to finally figure out the Tigers tonight??  I am not sure I do either.

The wager that I do love tonight is the UNDER on the giant 9.5 run total.  I am not sure who wins tonight’s game (though if forced to pick, I’d stick with Detroit), but I do love the run total trends each team brings to the table.  The UNDER is 4-0-1 in Detroit’s last five road games, 6-0-1 in their last seven games against a left-handed starter and 4-0 in Porcello’s last four starts (all with the total set between 9 – 10.5).

The trends are equally strong on the Chicago side:  the UNDER is 5-1-1 in their last seven games as an underdog (also all set between 9 – 10 runs).  The UNDER is 7-1 in Quintana’s last eight starts and 7-1 in his last eight starts as an underdog the UNDER is also 7-1.

The numbers all scream that tonight’s 9.5 total is a little inflated.  I’m betting the UNDER tonight, and planning on enjoying a really good (and important) baseball game.

Free Pick:  Run TOTAL UNDER 9.5