World Series – Game Two
Detroit Tigers -120 at San Francisco Giants +113 (Total: 7)
Doug Fister vs. Madison Baumgarner
Like the Giants, we remain red-hot at the SportsGeek.com, hitting for the ninth time in eleven picks, last night cashing in big on the Giants at +153, and are definitely now sitting pretty with the Giants to win the series at a fat +150. Much of the credit goes to a quartet of unlikely heroes. Pablo Sandoval joined a short list that includes Babe Ruth, Reggie Jackson and Albert Pujols after launching three homeruns in his World Series debut. Barry Zito and Tim Lincecum channeled the ghost of Cy Young past and combined for eight innings of one run baseball, shutting down one of the fiercest lineups in baseball, and Marco Scutaro continued his ever-going wet dream of a postseason, collecting three more hits.
Add it all together, and you get a huge Giants win in Game One, and the stage set for a huge Game Two for Detroit tonight in raucous AT&T Park.
The Tigers will turn to Doug Fister in a virtual must-win game, and that might be good news for the Tigers. Fister has been very good over his last two months. He has thrown two shutouts and owns seven quality starts in his last nine outings. Tonight will be his first start against the Giants in his young career. His stats over his past three starts are a bit inflated from his four-inning three-run tune-up start against the Royals at the end of the season after they had already clinched. In the Playoffs, he has allowed only two runs in two quality starts.
The Giants will hope to keep the winning ways going, and they are going to need a little magic tonight yet again; this time in the form of a resurgent start from Madison Baumgarner. He is 0-3 with a 10.92 ERA in his last three starts, and has given up ten runs in eight innings in his two postseason starts. I think he will struggle tonight with a more relaxed Tiger lineup tonight. The Tigers looked a little jumpy at the plate – as if they were as stunned as everyone else to be down 4-0 with Verlander on the mound. Tonight, I think they take a deep breath, wait for Baumgarner to give them some pitches to hit, and capitalize when he obliges.
I still like the Giants to win this series, but wouldn’t be nearly as eager to wager on it now that they are up 1-0. Let me explain. At +150 before the series started, it was a great value. Today, they have plummeted to -140. Hopefully you took my advice and grabbed them early, and if so, the more conservative corwd can lock in some profits and hedge with the Tigers at +130. It’s not a bad wager…
As far as tonight, I really like the Tigers to bounce back. I think they come out hitting tonight and get to Baumgarner early. I also like Fister to control the Giant lineup. No way Sandoval has a repeat performance. Though after the Angel Pagan ground ball that ricocheted off third base into left field for a double (and the outfield throw by Delmon Young later in the game… WOW) I am starting to be a little afraid of both the Giant magic and the Tiger defense…
Alas, I like the Tigers tonight to even the series at a game apiece. They are a good value at -120, and and even better value on the runline (-1.5) at +150 to +155.
Free Pick: Detroit Tigers to WIN -120 & Detroit Tigers -1.5 (+155)