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Tigers vs Rays Pick MLB – June 29th + Bonus Picks

We took a tough loss last night, as the Mets fell in collapsing fashion to the Washington Nationals 6-4.  The Mets gave Harvey some run support, and he absolutely shutdown the Nats through seven innings, just as predicted – only to have the bullpen allow five runs in the 8th and 9th innings to blow the lead and the game.  It is the third time in Matt Harvey’s career he has allowed three or less hits and struck out more than ten batters in seven innings… and he hasn’t gotten a win in ANY of those games…  Wow.  The New York Mets really don’t deserve the brilliance that is Matt Harvey…

It was a tough beat, but I’ll lick my wounds and try to bounce back with a nice winning Saturday.

Today’s Free Picks:

Chicago Cubs -105 at Seattle Mariners -105 (Total: 7)      

Jeff Samardzjia (5-7, 3.39 ERA) vs. Aaron Harang (3-7, 5.29 ERA)

Speaking of blown wins, the Cubs can certainly relate.  They held a 4-2 lead in the 8th before blowing yet another game and wasting yet another fantastic Travis Wood outing.  I guess Carlos Marmol wasn’t the only problem in the Windy City… their bullie woes continue in earnest even with Marmol DFA’d.

Tonight they send their biggest name pitcher (though Wood has quietly had the best season) to try and bounce back.  The Cubs should recognize HArang well from his seven year with division foe Cincinnati.  The season stats favor Samardzjia, but his last three outings he has posted an ERA over 4.  Meanwhile, Harang seems to be getting on track.  In his last three outings he has turned in 19.2 innings with a 1.89 ERA.

However, I don’t trust either starter to have a great day and I definetly do not trust the Cubbies bullpen.  The run total is a modest 7.  I like today’s game eclipsing that total slightly.

Free Pick:  Run TOTAL OVER 7

Detroit Tigers -136 at Tampa Bay Rays +127 (Total: 7.5)

Justin Verlander (8-5, 3.93 ERA) vs. Christopher Archer (2-3, 4.21 ERA)

I know it is difficult to bet against Justin Verlander because of his name and potential production.  But look at the facts for this season; he has an ERA near four, his WHIP is a high 1.38, and opponents are hitting .262 against him, well above the league average.  Meanwhile, young Christopher Archer is likely pitching for his spot in the rotation today, and I can’t think of a much less enviable task than having to do so against the Tigers lineup.

Miguel Cabrera is on FIRE, hitting two more homeruns yesterday and making another legit run at the Triple Crown.  He doesn’t get nearly the attention of other MLB superstars, but he is putting together the two best non-steroid era offensive seasons that anyone has ever seen.  It’s pretty spectacular.

I am not going to be scared away by “Verlander” on the jersey, and am going to jump on a run line that should legitimately be at LEAST one run higher.  Archer facing the Tiger lineup and a pitcher allowing a .262 batting average pitching against a good team on the road?  That’s an 8.5 line most days.

Free Pick:  Run TOTAL OVER 7.5