Things could not have bounced a worse way with my MLB pick last night. Not only did the Braves blow a 3-2 lead late in their home game against the Rockies, but once the game was 5-3, they still had a chance to not only win the game, but also cover my Over play.
They failed to do both, collapsing two wagers in defeat.
That was a bummer, but Friday’s MLB schedule opens up and gives us plenty of options to choose from. Glancing over a huge MLB betting slate, the game that stands out to me the most is a showdown in Minnesota between the Tigers and the Twins.
Minnesota lost their minds offensively last night, while Detroit actually did all they could to keep up.
Neither of these teams boast great pitching and this is a good park for offense, so what catches my eye the most is a fairly weak 8.5 Total. Let’s take a closer look at this game and see if that’s the bet to target:
Detroit Tigers (+155) vs. Minnesota Twins (-165) Total: 8.5 (-108/-112)
What a way to kick off a rivalry series. Minnesota really took it to Detroit, slapping them around in a 15-8 beatdown. Both sides will look to keep the hot bats going on Friday, when two relatively beatable pitchers prepare to toe the rubber.
If you have to pick a side, the nod goes to Minnesota’s Kyle Gibson. Formerly a bit of a gas can, he’s really turned his career around, starting with improved play in the second half of last season. That’s carried over into 2018, where he’s now a respectable starter.
That may be so, but Gibson still serves up a lot of contact and has coughed up 3+ runs in three of his last five starts. He’s no lock to just fall over and die in this spot, while he’s actually been good against the Tigers so far this year.
The bad news is Gibson isn’t easy to trust and he can have a difficult time at Target Field (2-5, 4.04 ERA, 9 of 15 HR at home), which is not a friendly park to pitchers.
I like the Twins to get the win here, but I do think Gibson could have a tougher time taking out the Tigers than the top MLB betting sites seem to think. He won’t be the main reason we get the -108 Over in this spot, but he can contribute to it.
Minnesota’s offense should keep humming along. They’re obviously at home in a good park and are starting to heat up after putting up 5 and 6 runs in their two games before Thursday’s bashing.
The Twins have loads of power and while they have not hit southpaws well this year, they’ll get a beatable one in Matthew Boyd (7-10, 4.20 ERA) on their home turf.
Boyd is not a true gas can, either, but he is another guy that gives up loads of contact and at times struggles with the long ball. He does a good job navigating power at home, but when he goes out on the road his ERA balloons to 5.60. He’s also coughed up 9 of his 14 home runs on the year outside of his home stadium.
The picture being painted here is two average pitchers in a dicey park against two capable offenses. Detroit is probably best suited to mash lefties and the Twins are best against righties, but I’m not getting lost in the splits game here.
Either Boyd or Gibson could crater in this game and a pitcher’s duel doesn’t feel likely. All you really need is something right down the middle to convert a solid -108 price tag at Sportsbetting.ag.