We are nearing the one month mark of the MLB season, so it is a good team to take a look at some teams that have been the best and worst values so far at the wagering window. The Mes may have finally lost a series this weekend, dropping two of three in their Subway Series with the Yankees, but they have still be far and away the best return of any team at nearly plus one thousand (+998). Interestingly though, they are -$32 on the road.
Meanwhile, it has been a tough start for teams projected by many to make a bog move this season, like the Nationals, Mariners, Indians and Marlins. Washington is the second-worst wager in April at a whopping -$820. Meanwhile Seattle, Cleveland and Miami are minus $714, $674, and $390 respectively. However, the worst bet in sports has been Milwaukee who sits at a stunning -$1200.
One fave who hasn’t disappointed are the Detroit Tigers. They are second only to the surprising mets at +$620. Just behind them are some other venerable contenders, the St. Louis Cardinals (+$598). It will be interesting to see how the Redbirds handle the devastating season-ending injury to ace Adam Waintwright.
Two sneaky great values so far in 2015? Two teams expected to be among the worst, Tampa Bay and Houston. Both are leading their respective divisions and are returning more than +$400.
Let’s see if we can get on some of the plus-sides of the trends tonight and snap a brief losing skid and start making some good MLB progress.
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Today’s Free Pick:
Detroit Tigers -156 at Minnesota Twins +144 (Total: 7.5)
David Price (1-1, 3.28 ERA) vs. Tommy Milone (2-0, 3.38 ERA)
The season stats for the starting pitchers make this look like a lot less of a mismatch than the first glance might indicate. Price had a dazzling opening day, but has been good, not great, since then. Meanwhile the journeyman Malone is off to a pretty good start, and 2-0 is pretty impressive, especially considering some of the Twins offensive woes this season.
The Tigers are probably pretty happy to see Minny on the schedule again. They outscored them 22-1 in a season-opening sweep (the one run was even unearned). They will look to inflict some more punishment on the Twinkies over the next three days. Detroit is 6-2 in their last eight road games and has won four in a row and five of seven over Minnesota. They aren’t a great value at -156, but I like Price to dominate and Milone to regress to the mean a bit against a devastating Tigers lineup that is hitting .282 and averaging nearly five runs a contest. They become a pretty good buy on the -1.5 runline at +115.