The formula has been a pretty simple one this season. Take the over in the Seattle Mariners game and cash your ticket. We followed that path last night and picked up yet another win. The Mariners are pounding the ball at a historic rate, and until the books adjust and start charging a premium to back them and the over, I am going to keep on pounding them.
Last night’s game saw the two teams combine for eight runs in the first four innings, and the game coasted to the over by the seventh. The big hit for Seattle came in the ninth inning, in the form of a tiebreaking homer from Mitch Haniger that gave Seattle the lead, and they held on for the win. The Mariners improved their already best record in baseball to a smoking hot 12-2. For Kansas City, the Royals have now lost nine straight games and have the worst record in the American League. For today’s pick, we will head to Boston where the Red Sox are looking to avoid the sweep against the Toronto Blue Jays.
The Toronto Blue Jays are in Boston Thursday night, looking to make it two straight wins over the Red Sox. The Blue Jays have struggled to start the season as they are just 4-8 on the year, but they did manage to pick up a come from behind win against Boston in the first game of the series. In that one, they managed to light up Boston ace Chris Sale to the tune of five runs, all earned, in just four innings. Sale is 0-3 for the first time in his illustrious career.
For the Red Sox, the defending World Series champions are shockingly in last place as they are 3-9 to start out the season. While it is still very early, history tells us that teams that start out this bad, rarely, if ever, make the playoffs. Boston needs to get things turned around, and soon, if they want any chance of repeating as world champs.
Starting tonight for Toronto is Aaron Sanchez (1-1 1.64 ERA), and for the Red Sox, it is Nathan Eovaldi (0-0 8.10 ERA). The Red Sox are big -185 home favorites. The game total over-under is set at nine and a half runs. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 PM PST from Fenway Park in Boston.
What an awful start to the season it has been for the Boston Red Sox. The Red Sox brought back nearly everyone from last year’s team, yet they can’t seem to win games right now. And when you look who they have been playing, it hasn’t exactly been a murderer’s row of squads. They have played the Mariners, Athletics, Diamondbacks, and Blue Jays. None of those teams were picked to win their divisions this season, and despite the hot start in Seattle, I am very doubtful any of those teams are even going to compete to make the playoffs. What is going to happen when Boston starts to play contending teams?
This team is struggling at the plate as they are 18th in the majors in runs scored and 20th in home runs. But the real issue for Boston has been their pitching staff. Boston is 27th in the game in ERA and batting average against. Tonight’s starter, Nathan Eovaldi, has been a prime example of a guy that has great stuff but can’t seem to get it together right now.
Eovaldi was the hero of this team last year as they rampaged their way through the playoffs and won the World Championship. A lot of that work came out of the bullpen, but Boston brought him in this year, to be a part of the starting rotation. But in his first two starts, he has been dreadful. Eovaldi has gotten hammered for nine runs in ten innings of work in his first two starts. He has walked six guys and given up four homers in those ten innings. Boston is hoping that Eovaldi can get some solid work in tonight against this bad Blue Jays offense.
Toronto will turn to Aaron Sanchez tonight to pick up the win. Sanchez has enjoyed a solid start to the season as he has a 1.64 ERA in two starts. The Blue Jays will need his best tonight if they want to have a chance at the upset, as this offense just doesn’t score too many runs.
Look, should the Red Sox be favored in this one? Yeah, probably. But to see them at nearly -200 is absurd. This team is playing awful right now, and their starters have been an absolute mess. To me, this game is a coin flip at best. Two teams that are both struggling to score runs and win games. But I think you could easily make the case that Sanchez is the better of the two starters as Eovaldi has been atrocious, so this feels like a spot where we can take a shot at a huge upset.
Are the Blue Jays locks to win this game tonight? Of course not. But if you are going to give me +174 against a guy with an ERA over eight runs, I am likely to take it every time. As I mentioned in yesterday’s pick, so much of baseball betting is about finding ways to fade good teams that are struggling, and that is exactly what we will do tonight. Give me the Toronto Blue Jays as big underdogs tonight in Boston at +174!