Twins vs. Mariners MLB Pick – May 17th

The Seattle Mariners play host to the Minnesota Twins this weekend for a four-game series. Things got started on Thursday with the Mariners taking a 11-6 loss against the hot Twins. Forget about the Indians, the Twins are running hot and taking the initiative to generate a healthy lead in the AL Central.

The Indians ran away and left everyone far behind in a season where the Twins were expected to be a threat. They may have been late bloomers, but everything has been working for them in 2019. The Twins have opened up a 4.5-game lead in the AL Central, as the Indians have never really been on point at any point this season. They struggled to open the season, a lot of the blame was put on the absence of Francisco Lindor in the lineup. That’s a sizable bat out of the offense, though they haven’t been so great in his return either.

In other words, the Twins are loving what they’re seeing in Cleveland. The Twins are out to a 28-15 start to the season. They hit 4 long balls in their winning cause on Thursday. It was the return of Miguel Sano to the lineup and he had 2 hits and an RBI. The offense erupted in the 4th inning for 7 runs to chase Erik Swanson out of the game. Minnesota ultimately secured a 11-6 win, which was more than enough to cash our ticket on the OVER.

It was a nice day yesterday, as we completed the sweep for a 4-0 day, including a winner on the Bruins in Game 4. The Twins will send Martin Perez to the bump this evening, while the Mariners hope to respond with Marco Gonzales. Head below for our free Twins vs. Mariners pick.

Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle Mariners Pick:

Betting Odds:

  • Moneyline: Twins -125/Mariners +105
  • O/U: 8.5

Pitching Matchup:

  • Martin Perez (5-1, 3.11 ERA)
  • Marco Gonzales (5-2, 3.18 ERA)

Betting odds provided by

The Twins have won three games in a row behind a hot strike offense that has been playing well this season. They added Nelson Cruz in the offseason and made some attempts to get better in that respect. Note that Cruz has been out with an injured wrist, but has been contributing with a .270 batting average and 7 home runs.

At this point, bringing in Nelson Cruz instead of somebody like Robinson Cano was a smart move. The Twins are 3rd in the major leagues with 5.42 runs scored per game. They finished 13th last season with 4.56 runs per game. Quite the improvement, so far anyway.

Also helping is performances from guys like Martin Perez. The Twins really didn’t have sky high expectations for Perez going into this season, but he’s been exceeding what they had in mind. Perez spent seven years in Texas with the Rangers and never met his goals.

In his final year there, he posted an ERA of 6.22 and only had one season, in 2013, with an ERA below 4.00. It’s early and he could still tank badly, but his ERA of 3.11 looks pretty impressive in comparison to his past. He pitched for the Rangers for all seven years of his career and hasn’t looked like this in a long time. However, Perez has been susceptible to getting hit on the road, as he has a 4.08 ERA and 1.30 WHIP on the road compared to a 2.51 ERA in Minnesota.

The Mariners have done well against Perez, as they’re hitting .301 with a .354 OBP in 133 at-bats. Conversely, Marco Gonzales has been sharp in the limited action he has seen against this lineup. The Twins are hitting just .188 in 16 at-bats against Gonzales. Not a huge sample size, but he has been capable. Gonzales has been pretty solid at home, as he’s sporting a 2.93 ERA in 27.2 innings pitched. In his previous 10 innings, he’s allowed just 3 runs on the board. This looks like a spot where the Mariners likely show up and get a win as slight underdogs to the Twins on Friday.

The Bet
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of The Sports Geek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at The Sports Geek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, and the NHL. Prior to writing for The Sports Geek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily at The Sports Geek.