Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves Pick – MLB July 9, 2022

The Washington Nationals will look to be more competitive at Truist Park tonight. In a rough effort from the Nationals, they were chased off the field in a 12-2 final. Already up 8-2, the Braves added 4 more runs in the bottom of the 8th.

The Braves are running well after a slow start to their World Series defense in 2022. They allowed the Mets to amass a big lead in the NL East, but the Braves are the team to beat now.

METS REGRESSING, BRAVES RISING
The Braves are only 2.5 games behind the Mets going into Saturday night. The Mets lost to the Marlins at home last night, so the Braves gain a game.

It was only a matter of when the Braves were going to shake off the hangover from their World Series and get hot. They’re feeling it now, with wins in four of their previous five going into tonight.

The Braves went on a 14-game winning streak in June to catapult them back into the picture.

The Nationals have been cold as ice since the end of June. They’ve lost seven of their last nine outings. It feels a lot like after the Royals won the World Series and couldn’t stay competitive. The Nats are in the same boat following experiencing the most success possible in baseball.

Washington is going into Truist Park at 30-56 and 23 games behind the Mets for the lead in the NL East. There’s a lot of work for them to do before they’re a competitive club again.

Patrick Corbin played an important role for the Nationals during their World Series run in 2019. However, he’s gotten worse in every season since then. Corbin starts, while Kyle Wright is expected at home for the Braves.

Head below for our free Nationals vs. Braves prediction on July 9, 2022.

Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves Live Betting Odds:

MLB Odds Courtesy of Bovada:
Team Spread Moneyline Total
Washington Nationals +1.5 (+110) +200 Over 9.5 (-105)
Atlanta Braves -1.5 (-130) -245 Under 9.5 (-115)
Team Data Washington Nationals Atlanta Braves
Overall Record 30-55 49-35
Away/Home Record 16-24 27-18
Batting Average .247 .246
Batting Average Away/Home .260 .250
Runs Per 9 3.97 4.79
Team ERA 5.12 3.60
Team ERA Away/Home 5.69 3.74

Nationals vs. Braves Prediction:

Acquiring Corbin for the 2019 season paid off nicely for the Nationals. He helped put the Nationals over the top, and they ultimately won a World Series. The move was worth it for the title, but Corbin has been slipping since that season.

Corbin finished with an ERA of 4.66 and a 5.82 the last two seasons.

He is on pace for another disappointing campaign, as Corbin carries an ERA of 5.68 and a 1.67 WHIP into Saturday night. Corbin has been all over the map, with little control or consistency.

The good news for Corbin is that he’s been in good shape recently, with an ERA of 2.37 and a 1.26 WHIP in his previous three starts.

THIS ISN’T HOME
Corbin has been fine at home, not good, but fine. Things take an ugly turn when Corbin is a visiting pitcher, though.

Corbin has recorded an ERA of 7.39 and a 1.90 WHIP in 36 innings on the road. Opponents have reached base at a .391 clip against Corbin. This is consistent with what he was doing a year ago, so not much has changed in that regard.

Corbin has had a horrible time against the Braves in his career.

Atlanta is hitting .376 with a .421 OBP through 156 at-bats. This lineup has notched 4 home runs and 21 RBIs versus Corbin.

Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves Betting Trends:

Nationals

  • Record (Last 10): 3-7
  • 4-16 overall in their previous 20 games versus the National League
  • 1-5 overall in their previous six games versus the Braves
  • 9-23 overall in their previous 32 games on the road versus a team with a winning record
  • 19-40 overall in their previous 59 games after a loss
  • OVER is 4-0 in their previous four games versus the Braves

Braves

  • Record (Last 10): 7-3
  • 9-2 overall in their previous 11 games at home versus a left-handed starter
  • 16-5 overall in their previous 21 games at home
  • 4-1 overall in their previous five games versus a team with a winning percentage worse than 40%
  • 4-1 overall in their previous five games on a Saturday
  • 7-1 overall in their previous eight games versus the NL East

  • The Braves should give Corbin problems tonight. As we saw last night, their offense can be explosive at times. Overall, the Braves are fifth in the majors with 4.82 runs per 9 innings and second with 1.56 home runs a game.

    They’re swinging the bats well and should have success again vs Corbin.

    Kyle Wright offers a nice option for the Braves on the hill tonight. Wright hasn’t been able to stick in the rotation since entering the majors in 2018. He’s been too inconsistent, though Wright is finally figuring it out in 2022.

    He is going into this start with an ERA of 2.91 and a 1.14 WHIP through 96 innings. Across his last three starts, Wright posted a 2.76 ERA and 1.29 WHIP.

    After allowing 5 earned runs to the Cubs on June 18 and then 4 earned runs on June 23, Giants, Wright bounced back in top form. He gave up 1 earned run across 7 innings against the Phillies, and followed up nicely with no earned runs allowed in 4 innings.

    I’m leaning towards the Braves at Truist Park tonight. Expect at least a 2-run win over the Nationals. This likely isn’t another 10-run win, but the Braves should be in control.

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    Nationals vs. Braves Pick
    ATLANTA BRAVES -1.5
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of TheSportsGeek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at TheSportsGeek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, NHL, and horse racing. Prior to writing for TheSportsGeek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily only at TheSportsGeek.

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