Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins Pick – MLB May 18, 2022

The Washington Nationals and Miami Marlins are at LoanDepot Park for the final meeting of a three-game series in Miami. The Marlins are looking for a sweep after an impressive effort the past two days.

Miami made it look easy at the plate and on the mound. They opened the series with a 8-2 win behind a strong performance from the offense and Sandy Alzantara, and then a 5-1 win with Cody Poteet churning through the Nationals.

The Marlins are a team aren’t ready to compete for an NL East title, but progress towards that in the next two years has to be exemplified. The pitchers in this starting rotation deserve a winning team.

For around a decade now, this has been an organization that has turned out some quality pitchers. They don’t get the most attention because of the losing team they’ve been on, but there have been some good arms coming through Miami.

Are the Marlins going to spend money on hitters to make them more of a contender?

The Marlins need to rake at the plate a little more consistently before this team is considered a contender. They are coming along from where this offense was just two years ago, though. Again, two or three more years and I have confidence in the Marlins.

There is nothing wrong with their pitching staff, which consistently produces solid games. Pablo Lopez is one of their biggest contributors. He is scheduled to get the start, with Josiah Gray countering for the Nats.

Head below for our free Nationals vs. Marlins prediction on May 18, 2022.

Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins Live Betting Odds:

The following odds are courtesy of Bovada:
Teams Spread Moneyline Total
Washington Nationals +1.5 (-140) +153 Over 7 (-120)
Miami Marlins -1.5 (+120) -185 Under 7 (+100)
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Team Data Washington Nationals Miami Marlins
Overall Record 12-25 16-19
Away/Home Record 7-10 8-9
Batting Average .246 .240
Batting Average Away/Home .289 .255
Runs Per 9 4.17 4.35
Team ERA 4.98 3.39
Team ERA Away/Home 5.45 3.59

Nationals vs. Marlins Prediction:

The Nationals have a problem that the Marlins don’t have on their team. Washington needs to improve their pitching. It’s in rebuild mode right now, as they rate near the back of the major leagues in nearly every pitching category.

The Nationals have a team ERA of 4.98 with a 1.47 WHIP. On the road it’s more problematic, as the Nats have a team ERA of 5.45 and a 1.55 WHIP.

Washington is 27th in the majors with 5.4 runs allowed per 9 innings and 28th with a .264 batting average allowed.

The OPS numbers are not attractive either, as they’ve conceded a .760 OPS for 28th. This includes 1.11 home runs allowed, good for 25th in the majors.

Josiah Gray has not helped matters on the bump for the Nats.

Gray is going into LoanDepot Park with an ERA of 4.34 and a 1.31 WHIP. He’s pitching better than the average on the team, so with that in mind, it’s not the worst that the Nationals have on their team.

However, Gray has gotten torched for a 6.43 ERA and 1.57 WHIP on the road this season. He hasn’t been at his best versus the Marlins, either.

Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins Betting Trends:


  • Record (Last 10): 3-7
  • 1-6 overall in their previous seven games as an underdog
  • 1-6 overall in their previous seven games after allowing 5 or more runs
  • 6-22 overall in their previous 28 games in the third game of a series
  • 8-20 overall in their previous 28 games versus a team with a losing record
  • 19-41 overall in their previous 60 games on the road


  • Record (Last 10): 5-5
  • 12-2 overall in their previous 14 games versus the NL East
  • 5-2 overall in their previous seven games versus the Nationals at home
  • 5-0 overall in their previous five games versus the Marlins
  • 2-5 overall in their previous seven games versus a right-handed starter
  • UNDER is 4-1 in their previous five games versus the NL East

  • The Marlins are hitting .302 with a .364 OBP in 51 at-bats. Brian Anderson and Jorge Soler have both connected for long balls against Gray.

    Pablo Lopez might be the most underrated starter in the major leagues. He continues to pile up the outs and is in early Cy Young territory despite not the most fanfare.

    Lopez is going into this one with an ERA of 1.05 and a 0.81 WHIP through 43 innings of work. Note that Lopez has allowed 1 or no earned runs in six of seven appearances this season.

    Lopez posted an ERA of 1.83 and a 0.92 WHIP in his last three trips to the bump. He gave up 3 runs to the Diamondbacks on May 2, but bounced back with 1 earned run allowed in 15 innings.

    This is a good value play on early Wednesday evening. Lopez at +120 on the runline over Gray and the Nationals is a good price to bet in this one. Play the Marlins to win by at least 2 runs at +120. I hope that Lopez will continue to go under the radar as the season progresses.


    Nationals vs. Marlins Pick
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of TheSportsGeek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at TheSportsGeek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, NHL, and horse racing. Prior to writing for TheSportsGeek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily only at TheSportsGeek.

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