World Series GAME FIVE Pick – October 30th

It is with fondness I bid you all farewell until Spring of 2017 from a baseball perspective.  It’s been a great year, and it is nice to be exiting on top.  We notched yet another winner last night, another plus-money winner to boot, with the Indians cashing an underdog winner for the second straight night.  Regardless of tonight’s result, and I hope to go away with a win, it’s been a great season and an especially ridiculous second half of the season.  It’s 32-13-1 ATS since Sept 1st, with a dozen dogs in the mix, and a nice 13-2-1 ATS for the postseason – far better than I even hoped for.

So, thanks for reading along this season.  I hope yours was a profitable one as well!  In the meantime, it’s a good start on the NBA hardwood as well at 5-0 ATS, so hopefully your passions extend beyond baseball and we’ll be seeing you all winter long as well.

Back to business – the Cubs are firmly in must-win territory, but handing the ball to Jon Lester at least makes the direness of the situation feel less helpless.  So can the Cubbies at least send the series back to Cleveland and give Hendricks and Arrieta a chance to make history?  Let’s dive inside tonight’s matchup and see if we can carve out yet another winning wager.

Today’s Free Pick:

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Cleveland Indians +210 at Chicago Cubs -225 (Total: 7)

Trevor Bauer vs. Jon Lester

This is another really insane line.  Yes, the Cubs are the obvious favorite tonight but laying more than 2:1 on a team that hasn’t scored with any certainty in more than half of the recent games going against an absolutely LOCKED IN pitching staff and relief corps?  Man, that price is too steep for me.

That said, I am not willing to fade them the same was I was in Game Three.  For one, JON LESTER.  He is mowing through hitters in the postseason, posting a 1.69 ERA with 21 Ks and just five walks.  Tonight will be his 21st postseason start, and he is no stranger to immense October pressure.  I think he comes up absolutely HUGE tonight.

But I’m not willing to lay more than twice the winning stake to bet that the Cubs will rattle Trevor Bauer or solve the Tribe’s vaunted bullpen.  This feels like yet another tense, low-scoring affair.  I like the Cubs to win tonight, but I don’t like the value of -225 nor the runline, where I’m getting a decent payout, but need the Cubs to score at least three or four runs to feel confident.

Instead, I’m going with both pitching staffs to keep things tight.  I like another low scoring affair and both starters to give the ball to the relievers with very little damage having been done.

Thanks again for a great season – I’m going UNDER for my final pick of the year.  Enjoy the game!!

Free Pick: Run TOTAL UNDER 7