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Yankees vs. Blue Jays Pick MLB – May 6th

Don’t look now, but perhaps the champs aren’t dead just yet. The Giants faded a bit off the collective baseball radar after a dreadful open to the season, but all of a sudden they’ve won 10 of 13, including five straight. They haven’t allowed a run since SATURDAY – that’s three straight games, and the last three nights their starting pitchers, MadBum and Vogelsong, allowed a total of five hits. Add in the performances they are getting from Lincecum (8 IP, 3 H Sunday) and Hudson, and it doesn’t seem to ridiculous that for all the splashy moves in San Diego, the division crown once again goes through LA and SF.

Today’s Free Pick:

New York Yankees -104 at Toronto Blue Jays -106 (Total: 8.5)

C.C. Sabathia (0-4, 5.40 ERA) vs. Mark Buehrle (3-2, 6.75 ERA)

This would have been an awesome pitching matchup. In 2008. But tonight? These two starters have a combined ERA over eleven and neither has been sharp in their last few outings. Add in how explosive the two respective offenses have been in 2015, and we have the makings of a fun offensive night.

Wait, how on Earth is Mark Buehrle 3-2 when his ERA is a staggering 6.75?   Is it all from one or two horrific outings? Nope. It is because the Blue Jays are scoring an average of 8.4 runs in games he starts. EIGHT POINT FOUR. Over more than month of baseball. That’s ridonkulous. And I don’t think C.C. will be able to do much to slow it down tonight.

Sabathia is still serviceable, but it is time people start viewing him as what he now is; a fourth or fifth starter at best. He is a high-four ERA guy who can eat up some innings over the course of the season and hopefully win you 10-12 games. He is Bronson Arroyo. He is Charlie Morton. A bottom of the rotation innings-eater at best – a serviceable major league pitcher but not a “give the ball to him in Game One of the postseason” guy.  But people still want to see him as the Cy Young winning ace of old. He’s not. Deal with it, and use the reluctance to let go of that image of C.C. by the general public to your betting advantage.

By the way, Mark Buehrle’s WHIP so far this season is 1.93. That’s nearly two runs an inning. So how does this game NOT get out of control tonight? I’d like the OVER at 9 and I’d consider it at 9.5. There’s going to be some runs crossing the plate barring a magical dip into the Fountain of Youth by either (or both) pitchers.

Enjoy the fireworks tonight and hopefully a win you can cash in with a few innings to spare.

Free Pick: Run TOTAL OVER 8.5