Yankees vs. Red Sox MLB Pick – September 9th

Well, that didn’t take long. 24 hours after I said it’s going to be interesting to see what Dave Dombrowski does with this team, he gets fired after suffering a 10-5 loss to Yankees on Sunday night. This is less than a year after Dombrowski was part of the Red Sox team who won a World Series in Boston.

Theoretically, the Red Sox are still defending world champions, so it’s a bit crazy to think that people are being fired in the front office before the season is even over. Sitting still at the trade deadline and don’t absolutely nothing had to rub people the wrong way. A move or two and the Red Sox might have had a good enough team to get into the Wild Card Game.

That said, this roster should have been a postseason team to begin with, even without a trade. This team just looked hungover all season and never focused on what they had to do to get back to the World Series. They will have only few weeks left to play this season and then they can regroup and reassess things for next year. I’d be surprised if they don’t come back in 2020 firing away.

After this dud of a season, there will likely be a new sense of commitment. Let’s see how this rotation looks first, though. Their offense will put up runs next year, but everything will hinge on the pitching staff. Going into this season the concern was the bullpen.

And while the pen hasn’t been great, neither has the starting pitching. The Red Sox are 19th with a team ERA of 4.62. There isn’t one team who are in control of a postseason spot right now out of the top-15 in that regard. The Yankees are 14th, but they’ve had more than enough firepower to make up for bad pitching in spots.

Eduardo Rodriguez, who has actually developed into one of the best options in the rotation for the Red Sox, will toe the rubber at Fenway on Monday. The Yankees will go with former Mariner, James Paxton. Paxton picking up steam for October would give the Yankees a huge lift. Head below for our free Yankees vs. Red Sox pick.

N.Y. Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Pick:

Betting Odds:

  • Yankees -117/Red Sox -103
  • O/U: 8.5

Pitching Matchup:

  • James Paxton (12-6, 4.16 ERA)
  • Eduardo Rodriguez (17-5, 3.81 ERA)

Betting odds provided by bovada.lv

It has been a good sign lately for James Paxton and the Yankees. With October just around the corner, Paxton is beginning to pitch the best we’ve seen out of him all season. He was a bit topsy-turvy earlier in the year, but he’s beginning to find his way on the bump. The Yankees are going to need an extra boost from their pitching staff in the postseason and Paxton pitching well is a good starting point.

In his previous three outings, Paxton has posted an ERA of 1.93 and 0.70 WHIP. This is the guy that the Yankees thought they were getting when the team acquired him. This is shades of his production from 2017 when he posted a 2.98 ERA with the Mariners.

Along with the last three games, his arm has been hot since the beginning of August. In his previous seven outings, which dates back to August 2nd against the Red Sox, Paxton has allowed 3 or less runs in six of seven games. In five of seven, Paxton gave up 2 or less runs.

His latest effort against the Red Sox was tremendous, as he allowed just 2 hits and 2 runs in 6 innings. The Yanks went on to win the contest by a score of 4-2. The Red Sox have been just below average against Paxton, with a .236 batting average in 148 at-bats.

Conversely, the Yankees are hitting .264 with 32 runs scored against Rodriguez in 246 at-bats. The Yankees have scored 7 runs on Rodriguez in their last 12.1 innings against him. Sure Rodriguez has been hot, but comparing his effort against other inferior offenses is a pointless endeavor. There aren’t too many offenses who can compete with the Yankees, and they’ve proven they can hit Rodriguez.

After the news last night, I’m not expecting a motivated Red Sox team on Monday night. It could motivate them to play better, but I just see it as them throwing in the towel on the year. The Yankees smell blood and likely convert in this one for their third straight win over Boston.

The Bet
YANKEES
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of The Sports Geek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at The Sports Geek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, and the NHL. Prior to writing for The Sports Geek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily at The Sports Geek.