Yankees vs. Twins MLB Pick – July 23rd

CC Sabathia had control issues early and the Minnesota Twins were able to exploit him with some deep balls. The Twins took advantage of his struggles to hit him with 6 earned runs. Luis Cessa and Jonathan Holder combined to hold the Twins for 1-run, but the damage was already inflicted against Sabathia. The Twins went on for an 8-6 win, which was plenty of runs to give us a winning pick on the OVER.

Sabathia has been amiss on the road and he continued down a wrong path as a visitor in Minnesota. His performance doesn’t cause the front office to hang up the phones and stop trying to pull in an additional pitcher to the rotation. Marcus Stroman looks like a serious candidate to land in the Bronx to wear the pinstripes.

They’ve whiffed on some trade deadline acquisitions recently. None more notable than Sonny Gray with the Yankees. He was a major bust, but has since found his balance again in Cincinnati. There is added pressure pitching in the NYC market and not every guy is ready for it. Stroman is a pitcher overflowing with confidence, so I don’t think he would be bothered by the bright lights. Madison Bumgarner and Zack Greinke are a couple of other elite options.

However, I think the Yankees can get Stroman for cheaper from the Blue Jays. With the Giants suddenly in the wildcard mix, they’re unlikely to give up Bumgarner for an affordable asking price. Also, Bumgarner is the guy with the postseason success, so that puts more pressure on the Yankees to give the Giants a stable of quality prospects in return.

Getting Luis Severino back healthy for the postseason might be the biggest addition of all, though. Domingo German missed nearly a month of action, returning on July 3rd against the Mets. He’s been flawless since then. German will get the starting nod, while Kyle Gibson is expected for the Twins. Head below for our free Yankees vs. Twins pick.

N.Y. Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins Pick:

Betting Odds:

  • Moneyline: Yankees -123/Twins +103
  • O/U: 10

Pitching Matchup:

  • Domingo German (12-2, 3.38 ERA)
  • Kyle Gibson (9-4, 4.02 ERA)

Betting odds provided by bovada.lv

Domingo German has looked like a recharged pitcher since he got a few weeks off to nurse a hip strain. It fortunately wasn’t a serious injury for German, but enough to give him some time off to rest his hip. He appears to be completely over what was bothering him, because German has been on a tear since getting back into the rotation. He has posted an ERA of 1.50 with a 0.78 WHIP and .212 OBA in those three games. German is likely to be assisted by solid run support tonight.

This will be his second start against the Twins this season. He was dynamite in his first outing against them, as he frustrated the Twins with just 1-run and 4 hits allowed in 6.2 innings. The Yankees went on for a 4-1 win in that contest. German fooling the Twins has been a recurring theme over this career. Twins’ batters are hitting just .152 with a .188 OBP against him in 46 at-bats. They’ve managed to score only 2 runs on him.

The Twins have been solid against right-handed pitching, but better against lefties. They’re hitting .261 against righties while hitting .287 against lefties. The Yankees haven’t had any issues against right-handed pitching, as they’re hitting .269 on the season. In 121 at-bats vs Kyle Gibson, the Yankees have scored 21 runs with 7 long balls.

Edwin Encarnacion has had his number, with a .400 OBP and 4 home runs to lead the Yanks in production against Gibson. In his career against the Yankees, Gibson owns a dreadful 6.50 ERA and 1-6 record across nine outings. The Yanks should be able to bounce back and tie the series up heading into Wednesday.

The Bet
YANKEES
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of The Sports Geek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at The Sports Geek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, and the NHL. Prior to writing for The Sports Geek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily at The Sports Geek.