ACA 137 Main Event Betting Pick: Magomedov vs Matevosyan

This MMA betting pick covers Magomedov vs Matevosyan, the main event for ACA 137 on March 6th, 2022. If you didn’t get enough MMA action through the weekend, bet on the ACA card before 10:00 AM ET Sunday and watch the fights live here
This fight is a battle for the ACA Light Heavyweight title, currently held by Magomedov the undefeated champion. 
There are no prop bets for the ACA at this time, and our final betting pick is: 

Magomedov looks unstoppable. He’s finished half his professional fights and shows no immediate weaknesses. Matevosyan has racked up a series of wins over lower and mid level fighters, but hasn’t shown that he has the technical grappling skill needed to hang with Mogomedov. 

Tale of the Tape for ACA 137: Magomedov vs Matevosyan

Fighter Muslim Mogomedov  Grigor Matevosyan 
Money Line, payout per dollar wager -300, $0.33 +240, $2.40
Age 27 28
Height 6’0’’ 5’11’’
Record 10-0  9-2
Submissions/TKO  1/4 1/6
Fighter Training Camp Academy MMA  NA
Last Weigh In 205.9 203.7

Muslim is the younger, larger fighter. It’s clear that he cuts weight to make the 205 pound weight class, while Matevosyan appears to be underweight, and out sized by several of his light heavyweight opponents.
Academy MMA is one of the best Russian gyms, boasting fighters like Armen Petrosyan and Tagir Magomedov alongside multiple ACA, ABA and Brave FC champions. Grigor hasn’t released a training camp, and it’s unclear who his coaches or sparring partners are, though he lives in Sochi, where there are several mid-level training clubs. 
Grigor does have a better finishing rate, but Magomedov is much more conservative in his approach, willing to hold down fighters for full rounds, and clinch fights to victory if necessary. 

ACA Betting Odds History

Muslim has been the favorite in all ACA bouts, ranging from -600 to -1000. This is the closest fight in his betting history, probably because he pulled out with an injury last November, and the fight was moved four months ahead. 
Grigor was -180 in his win over Artur Astakhov last February, and is now the underdog in his second ever fight with betting odds. 

Can Matevosyan Defend Magomedov’s Takedowns at ACA 137?

 Muslim vs Oliveira was a classic striker versus grappler match, one where Oliveira was so tentative to engage that he didn’t throw a strike for a full minute. He defended Magomedov’s first takedown attempt and then stalked him down, walking into punch combinations. Muslim scored an average of one takedown per round, but still won the striking exchanges because of the fear of the takedown. 
To win, Matevosyan needs to swing like there is no threat of a takedown, and then manage to stand up when Muslim inevitably gets the single leg or duck under. 

Matevosyan vs Artur

Artur was unable to win any takedowns from the clinch with Matevosyan. But Muslim shoots from the outisde, just beyond jab range. Matevosyan commonly leans away from straight punches, something that is great for striking defense but bad for defending the shot and giving the opponent your hips. 

  • Matevosyan demonstrates several techniques that will give Muslim the advantage. This includes like pulling against the jab hand and marching forward into the clinch on the majority of his combinations. 
  • He hasn’t faced this level of grappling before inside the ACA, and many of the fighters he’s faced are moderate wrestlers at best. 

Fight Tape for Muslim Magomedov

Most fighters try to strike with Muslim and still lose. He plays the outside and counters well against incoming attacks. Another great striker that Muslim was able to finish was Evgenly Egemberdiev. You can watch the full fight here
Evgenly, known for spinning attacks and a 70% knockout ratio, kept moving forward into Muslim and getting countered off the fence. Muslim is surpisingly light on his feet and able to cut angles with ease. 

Muslim can finish fights by looking for technical weaknesses that other fighters miss. None of his finishes look identical. I believe Muslim is ready for the UFC and no one at ACA will be able to dethrone him for a long time.

ACA 137 Magomedov vs Matevosyan Wrap Up

Muslim has survived better strikers and Matevosyan has never met this kind of fighter. This -300 money line should be a much stronger favorite, and bettors should take the opportunity to parlay this fight along with a betting favorite from UFC 272

Jacob Clark / Author

Jacob Clark had a 15 year career as a professional MMA fighter, coach, and Greg Jackson’s alum. Now, TikTok’s 12th most important BJJ influencer is bringing his sports and betting knowledge to you here at TheSportsGeek. He spends his time cooking vietnamese food and playing D&D with his family. You can meet him at jiu-jitsu open mats all over Indiana.

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