Amanda Nunes vs Peña 2 Odds and Pick

UFC 277’s main event is a rematch for the UFC bantamweight title. We’re diving into the Nunes vs Peña 2 odds to bring betting picks across multiple betting markets. We’ve found Nunes vs Peña II betting picks for parlay picks or big upset bets. 

Top Betting Pick for Nunes vs Peña II

Nunes is going through a rough time with her camp and it’s clearly affected her performances. She struggled against some pretty fundamental boxing from Peña in fight one, and we see Peña as the better value. This fight is close, but the +225 return is too high to ignore. 

Top Bet for Fans of Nunes

Betting the Nunes money line isn’t a bad wager. I would consider the under 4.5 rounds as a Nunes fan. The majority of her wins are finishes in the last ten fights, and you’re hedged against another Peña upset. 
The under pays -220, $45.45 in winnings per $100 wager. 

Amanda Nunes vs Julianna Pena Method of Victory Odds  

Many bettors are looking at the method props on this one, convinced that it’s either Peña by submission or Nunes by TKO. This isn’t a bad strategy, but consider that Peña is yet to be finished, going the distance with Eye and out striking McMann.

Fighter  Amanda Nunes  Julianna Pena
Money Line -275  +220
Points or Decision +325 +550
TKO +129 +900
Submission +575 +500
Inside the Distance  -285 +210
In Round 1 +250 +1200
In Round 2  +450 +1800
In Round 3  +900 +2200
In Round 4  +1400 +2800
In Round 5 +2200 +3500

Nunes’ last loss via strikes was to Cat Zingano.

Your Julianna Peña prop bet would do well to remember that Peña out boxed Zingano just two years later.

A six year streak as the best ever is a good run, and I wonder if Nunes is seeing a return to her 2014 training methods, which was before she joined the American Top Team. 

High Risk Prop: Peña in Round 2 +1800

With Nunes only losses coming in rounds 2 and 3, It’s not the worst prop bet you can make. Peña has finished inside the first three rounds, and she has no real reason to change strategy against Nunes coming into this fight. Peña may run the exact same gameplan and I don’t see why Nunes would be better prepared for it. 

Over Under Odds for Pena vs Nunes

Bet Over, Yes Odds  Under, No Odds
1.5 Rounds  -205 +155
2.5 Rounds -115 -115
3.5 Rounds +130 -170
4.5 Rounds +170 -225
Fight Goes the Distance  +185 -250
Fight Completes Round 1 -325 +230
Fight Completes Round 2 -135 +105
Fight Completes Round 3 +110 -145
Fight Completes Round 4 +150 -200

The under props are our main concern. Both fighters have first round knockouts in the UFC, ten collectively. This high rate of fast finishes lets us know to stay away from the Over prop bets. Peña vs Nunes Odds reflect that, giving +130 odds at the Over 3.5 rounds mark. 

Alternate Round Odds for Nunes vs Peña II

Fighter  Amanda Nunes  Juliana Peña
Rounds 1,2 or 3 +100 +500
Rounds 4, 5 or Decision +265 +385

It’s surprising to see the Rounds 1, 2 or 3 bet so high for Peña. Analysts and bettors alike see the Peña win as a fluke, but as I review fight tape I’m forced to change my mind. 

Medium Risk Prediction: Peña Rounds 1, 2, or 3 +500

Peña has no championship round finishes and few decision wins. If she does it, it will look shockingly close to the first victory. 

Special Bets for Nunes vs Pena 

Fighter  Nunes  Pena
Most Significant Strikes  -275 +200
Most Takedowns Landed  -115 -115
TKO or Submission -135 +175
Submission or Decision  +175 +250

Expect takedowns to be the same. Nunes may come out with a grappling heavy strategy. She knows Peña has a paltry 22% takedown defense, meaning she successfully defends only one in five attempts. Peña lost to Shevchenko because of takedowns after winning the stand-up exchanges. 

MMA Analysis for Peña vs Nunes

The jab was a key component to the Peña victory in fight one. Nunes went on to say Peña “Lives in a fantasy” in regards to being a better striker than Nunes.

The reality is, Nunes will need to make defensive changes if she’s going to outbox Peña.

She’s a sucker for the jab and couldn’t pick it on any occasion throughout the fight 

Nunes has one strike knockout power, but she didn’t always have it. The kind of conditioning and training required to maintain this form may be lost as she strays from ATT and builds her own team inside Sanford MMA. I don’t know if we’ll see this kind of Amanda Nunes again. 

Peña is a fighter on the rise. Rewatching her bout with Valentina you can see how early her boxing has becoming dangerous. Expect this to mount in a future rubber match with Nunes. 
For more MMA action check out our review of the top UFC betting sites.

Jacob Clark / Author

Jacob Clark had a 15 year career as a professional MMA fighter, coach, and Greg Jackson’s alum. Now, TikTok’s 12th most important BJJ influencer is bringing his sports and betting knowledge to you here at TheSportsGeek. He spends his time cooking vietnamese food and playing D&D with his family. You can meet him at jiu-jitsu open mats all over Indiana.

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