Bellator Paris Main Event: Bader vs Kongo 2 Betting Pick

We’re offering our analysis for Bader vs Kongo 2 Betting picks. This Bellator 280 ‘Paris’ main event is for the heavyweight title. You’ll place your bet by May 6th, 2022 at 3:00 PM ET to get in on the main event action at one of our preferred MMA betting sites

Bader vs Kongo 2 Betting Pick

After a close look at the stats and fight history, you’ll see why we chose:

Over 2.5 Rounds covers the majority of outcomes between these two fighters, matching 66% of both fighters’ last three fights. Both Bader vs Kongo’s also had a bout nearly escaping round 2. While Bader is famous for a few early knockouts in Lawal and Emelianenko, he’s struggled with lanky fighters- going to decision with Mitrione and Phil Davis. The Over pays out $90.91 for every $100 wagered. 

Tale of the Tape for Kongo vs Bader 2 

Fighter Cheick ‘The Darkness’ Kongo  Ryan ‘Darth’ Bader
Age 46 38
Height 6’4’’ 6’2’’
Reach/Stance 84’’ 74’’
Record 31-11-2, 1NC  29-7, 1 NC
Submissions/TKO’s in the last 10 Fights 2/2 0/3
Fighter Training Camp Kongo Smashing Club, Varied Power MMA
Weigh In  241 232

Both fighters are getting up there in age, but Kongo has to be one of the oldest active fighters in the top 50 at heavyweight. Looking only at their last ten performances, they have similar finishing rates. Kongo has always had a ridiculous reach, but is just now learning how to use it. Bader has made up for his less than perfect reach with excellent Power.

Fighter Training Camps

Kongo is at various training facilities throughout his camp, but spent most of this camp in France. Bader is still at Power MMA, where he’s been for most of his career. There he trains with Seth Baczynski and other mid level heavyweights. Neither fighter has high level heavyweights to work with. Bader is the smaller fighter, and I think over the course of the bout Kongo will begin to win clinch exchanges as a result. 

Kongo’s Submission Work

Chieck Kongo has two submissions for Bellator, both of them RNC’s, a choke from back mount. Prior to these Kongo’s last sub was in 2003 on ‘It’s Showtime.’ His BJJ game is much improved, but we still doubt its use against Bader. Bader’s last submission losses include Tito Ortiz and jon Jones, both via guillotine off failed clinch and takedown attempts. Kongo’s submission work is a threat but an unlikely outcome. 

Bellator Paris Odds for Cheick Kongo vs Ryan Bader 2

Bet  Odds
Bader Money Line -425
Kongo Money Line  +290
Over 2.5 Rounds -110
Under 2.5 Rounds -130

Bader is a strong favorite mainly because of his performance in their first bout prior to the eye poke stoppage, where Bader was also a strong favorite. We go into greater detail on betting history in our full card preview. 

Kongo’s Average Fight Length

Kongo has gone to decision in ten of his Bellator appearances since joining it in 2013. Of the fights that were finished, none of those six went past 4:50 of round 2. In a title fight however, the five round bout will slow the pace of both fighters, forcing them to consider the fourth and fifth rounds. None of Kong’s fights have been five round bouts ever, except the first Bader no contest bout. 

Betting the Bader vs Kongo Under: Why Won’t Bader Knockout Kongo?

In their first bout Bader looked to put him against the cage early. This strategy showed that Bader wanted nothing to do with the stand up game. He was open in saying that Kongo’s conditioning was in question, and a grinding, clinch and grappling focused gameplan was going to be exhausting for him. I feel he’ll follow a similar path, because it was working in their two minutes of combat. 

Look at the way Bader has to reach for his knockout shots. He needs a shorter fighter to kickbox effectively, and Kongo is four inches taller and has an eight inch reach advantage of Emelianenko, the man you see Bader striking with. 

MMA Analysis for Bader vs Kongo 2 Sports Betting

Most analysts look at Bader’s aggression. Highlights tell a story of a fighter who’s running over the competition, and Bellator makes it tough to find clips of Bader’s more droning performances. Against fighters like Lyoto Machida Kongo can do little but hold on for dear life. Pinning athletes to the ground is the majority of Bader’s style. 

Kongo has a weird chin. He has this staying power in many of his fights where he’ll get hit hard but come back to finish or take decision wins. Bader will be looking for a big knockout on the feet, but Kongo tends to have a more metered approach, using Savat style kickboxing to attack the legs and body. 

Bader has to make sure he doesn’t get tired in the clinch. Kongo towers over opponents and if Bader makes a sloppy shot, the punishment can be a finish. I have just as much reason to bet the Kongo upset as I do the Bader money line, which is why we’ve settled on an Over prop. 

Bader vs Kongo 2 Wrap Up

Bader has been the longest running Bellator heavyweight champion, and if Kongo wins it he won’t last long. The new pool of under 34 years old heavyweights is coming. For now, look to capitalize off two fighters that once had strong finishing power but are aging into technical old guard. 

Jacob Clark / Author

Jacob Clark had a 15 year career as a professional MMA fighter, coach, and Greg Jackson’s alum. Now, TikTok’s 12th most important BJJ influencer is bringing his sports and betting knowledge to you here at TheSportsGeek. He spends his time cooking vietnamese food and playing D&D with his family. You can meet him at jiu-jitsu open mats all over Indiana.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.