Bellator 267: Douglas Lima vs Michael Page 2 Main Event Pick and Analysis

Douglas Lima and Michael Venom Page are back in the cage this Saturday, October 2nd, 2021 at Wembley Arena in London.

With Lima, the former champ, is fresh off a title defense loss to Amosov we should see the hungriest Douglas Lima in ages. In spite of that, Lima’s bets are rapidly on sale, moving +60% from his opening position at -188. Lima lost to Mousasi in an attempt to gain the vacant Middleweight belt and is now on a two-fight skid.

Michael Venom Page only has a single loss on his record, his last fight with Lima. He’s moved from +100 underdog to dead even in many MMA sportsbooks. Its clear MVP has captured the imagination of analysts and fans alike by finishing four of his last five opponents with ease.

We’re developing our most confident bet through a detailed look at the odds, stats, fight history, and an expert look at their last fight in May of 2019.

Douglas Lima vs Michael Page Odds and Props

Fighter Money lines and Payout per Dollar Wagered Fight Goes to Decision
Douglas Lima -110, $0.91 Yes (+115)
Michael Page -105, $0.95 No (-155)

Douglas opened at -188 and moved to -110, indicating a shift in oddsmakers analysis or heavy bets on the underdog.

Page’s +100 underdog status was short-lived, and MVP gains about 3% per hour just days before the fight, and may even close as a strong favorite if the trend holds.

Take a look at Lima’s last five sets of odds. Lima tends to move 60 to 120 points in most match ups.

Lima’s Opening Odds Lima’s Closing Odds Opponent and their Closing Odds
-188 -110 (Current odds) MVP (+100)
-200 -109 Loss to Amosov (-105)
+105 +145 Loss to Mousasi (-162)
+110 -160 Win over Macdonald (+150)
-335 -278 Win over MVP (+265)

I expect another thirty points of movement. Place your bet now if you’re a Lima fan.

Michael Page’s only fight on record closing as the underdog was against Lima at +265. He’s a favorite that usually closes between -300 and -1600. Fans who caught him at +100 in opening odds we’re lucky, and I expect movement to favorite status before this Saturday.

Lima’s first fight with MVP ended in a knockout, and MVP finishes 78% of his fights early The fight doesn’t go to decision prop makes the most sense, though you’ll make slightly less than if you can find the winner at -155, a $0.65 per dollar wagered payout. MVP’s and Lima’s average rounds in a win, come in at 1.3, though in Lima’s losses he averages 3.4 rounds.

Tale of the Tape

Douglas Lima Michael Page
33 Age 34
6’1″ Height 6’3″
32-9 MMA Record 19-1
10/16 SUB/TKO 3/12
Orthodox Stance Orthodox
71″ Reach 78″
113 days Inactivity 149 days
-109 (Loss) Last odds -500 (Win)

Lima’s Notable Advantages

  • One year younger
  • More ring experience, with double the total fights of Page
  • Slightly more active, which can be to a fighters detriment if camps are too close together
  • A higher finishing percentage among wins, 81.5% to Page’s 78%
  • A well-rounded finishes, with a 38% split of finishes as submissions to Page’s 25%

Page’s Notable Advantages

  • Taller in addition to a seven-inch reach advantage
  • The momentum of wins, with a better overall record and only one defeat
  • Coming off a win as a strong favorite

Here’s MVP flexing that reach advantage. It’s hard to believe Lima fought at Middleweight.

Douglas Lima vs Michael Page Recent Bouts

Looking at their last five performances, and three of Lima’s since the 2019 match-up, can tell us how they’ve faired before and after Lima’s win on May 11, 2019. We’re looking at rounds lost, dates, and outcomes. If two judges’ score cards agreed, we went with those scorecards over the third judge’s scoring.

Douglas Lima’s Last Four Fight Stats

Fight Date Rounds Lost Outcome
06/11/2021 4 Decision Loss
10/29/2020 4 Decision Loss
10/26/2019 0 Decision Win
05/11/2019 1 TKO Win
09/29/2018 1 Submission Win

Lima’s title fights put him in a bad position against talented athletes. It’s clear that Lima has fought the tougher fighters over his last three. The fourth fight on the table is MVP. He had avenged a loss against Rory Macdonald nine months prior.

Lima seems to be slowing down, both in activity level and in ability at the highest levels. He’s given up eight rounds since the MVP fight, and ten rounds in five fights.

Michael Page’s Last Five Fight Stats

Fight Date Rounds Lost Outcome
05/07/2021 0 Injury Win
10/10/2020 0 Decision Win
12/28/2019 0 TKO Win
11/23/2019 0 TKO Win
9/27/2019 0 TKO Win

Michael has faired better over the last two years than Lima, showing more activity and not giving up a single round. However, the quality of the opponents he faced should be in question. Ross Houston is an up and comer with an 8-0 record until meeting Page. Anzai had no business fighting Michael and desperately needs to cut to lightweight.

Here’s a breakdown of TKO #3 on the table, just after the Lima loss.

Derek Anderson is the only top ten Bellator fighter MVP faced in five bouts. However, we can’t deny the effects of momentum. Page has to feel good about racking up quick finishes while Lima gets beaten up in back-to-back wars.

What Douglas Lima vs Michael Page 1 Tells Us About Our Bet

Page showed that he’s fully capable of stopping Lima’s ground strikes from going off. He has patience and a willingness to wait for a referee to stand the fight up. Lima landed no significant strikes by my count in round one. Michael landed a between four and six. Matt Brown is the only fighter to ever knock Lima out, so we know it will be more than a glancing blow for MVP to finish.

MVP lands a jab-cross in the opening of the second that stumbles Lima. Immediately after a bit of show boating is rewarded with a trip leg kick and uppercut knockout, finishing MVP in the second.

We know Lima is capable of finishing Page. We also know that page was winning the fight up to that point.

My Final Lima vs Page Betting Prediction

Lima looks like he’s fading in his last two. He’s a world-beater, but I’d like to see an easier fight for him coming off back-to-back losses to the best opponents possible. Page took the time to improve his defense, build up his confidence, and make another title run. In my eyes, he made the right choice for his camp and career.

I’m 2-0 on Bellator Main Event predictions! I think I’m on track for my third call in a row. As always, comment below if you have anything to add, and happy betting!

The Bet
Michael Page
Jacob Clark / Author

Jacob Clark had a 15 year career as a professional MMA fighter, coach, and Greg Jackson’s alum. Now, TikTok’s 12th most important BJJ influencer is bringing his sports and betting knowledge to you here at TheSportsGeek. He spends his time cooking vietnamese food and playing D&D with his family. You can meet him at jiu-jitsu open mats all over Indiana.

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