Bellator 276 Main Event Betting Pick: Brunell vs Borics

Bellator 276 coverage starts with the main event betting pick: Borics vs Burnell. This card airs Saturday, March 12th, 2022 at 6:00PM ET. We’ve gathered up the odds in all seven markets and crunched the stats to bring you our top betting pick. 

Bellator 276 Main Event Betting Pick

Our betting pick is Mads Burnell. He’s likely to win the takedown over Borics early on and win the opening rounds. Borics has lost to the best submission artist he’s faced to date, and Mads is an even better submission centered fighter, with superior grappling. Borics knockout power hasn’t shown its face against more experienced opponent’s, and Burnell hasn’t been stopped since his early MMA career prior to UFC. 

Tale of the Tape for Borics vs Burnell

Fighter Adam ‘The Kid’ Borics  Mads Burnell
Age 28 28
Height 5’11’’ 5’8’’
Reach/Stance 70’’ Switch  69’’ Orthodox 
Record 17-1 16-3
Submissions/TKO  6/4 9/1
Fighter Training Camp Sanford MMA Xtreme Couture, Art Suave Copenhagen
Losses via Sub/TKO 1/0 2/1

Burnell is the smaller fighter and will be moving forward into Borics range to score the takedown for the majority of the fight. Burnell has made the full time switch to Xtreme Couture within the last two years, and Borics move to Sanford MMA must have been after his last Bellator win. 
They both have ten finishes total, but Burnell was finished three times in his three losses, two of those inside the UFC 2017-18. 
Borics one loss came by Darrion Caldwell in 2020,  a submission win that he has since bounced back from with three decision wins. Borics hasn’t fought since April 2021, and had one canceled fight with Jay Jay Wilson prior to the match with Burnell. 
Since leaving the UFC, Burnell has gone 7-0, finishing five fights with ground strikes and submissions.  

Bellator 276 Main Event Betting Odds and Odds History 

Bet Available at Odds  
Adam Borics Money Line +185
Mads Burnell Money Line -225
Over 4 ½ Rounds -110
Under 4 ½ Rounds  -120
Goes the Distance ‘No’ -145
Mads by points  +175
Mads by Submission +175
Borics by Points +425
Mads Burnell -5.5 points  -145
Burnell in Round 1 by Submission +650
Borics in Round 2 by TKO +1400

Burnell is the favorite and likely has one of the better ground games Borics has ever faced. We thought Borics would lose to Kennedy in his last match, but he won unanimously. Borics was a +104 underdog. His only loss was as the favorite at -105, and he’s been the underdog in two of his last eight fights inside Bellator. 
Burnell has seen betting odds ranging from -185 to -700 over his last seven wins outside of the UFC. His last losses were as the underdog, +175 and +325. 

Over Under and Prop Bets

The Under prop matches the majority of Burnell’s fights, but not Borics last three wins. If you’re betting on a finish, you’re wagering that Borics can be submitted or Mads can be knocked out, and not much else. I’d say it’s about a 50/50 chance of finishing, so the oddsmakers are spot on for our Bellator 276 main event betting odds. 
Mads by points is a good bet, but something I’m less interested in because of the risks of submission. Don’t use the round betting props without boosting your odds with a method of victory. Brunel will win by submission, so don’t bet ‘Mads in Round 1.’ You’re covering needless fight outcomes. 

Fight Prediction and MMA Breakdown 

Borics vs Burnell is a striker versus grappler match up. We’ll be looking at their most likely methods of victory and how the other side fairs at defending. 

Adam Borics Takedown Defense

Against Caldwell, Borics sat on the outside of range, throwing leg kicks and getting pushed into the fence early. He was taken down inside eighty seconds. The first takedown ended in a submission from Caldwell, a two minute victory. Hamel didn’t go for many takedowns, but did bully Borics into the fence time and again, winning a split decision. 
Many fighters refuse to shoot on Borics. Pico, Curran and Sanchez didn’t make a single attempt. I see cage takedown defense as a weakness for Borics overall. 

Mads putting it on Aljamain Sterling. People don’t understand how good this guys wrestling really is. He was released from the UFC early for my taste.

Mads Burnell Striking Defense

Mads burnell landed takedowns on Maxwell in the UFC off catching the leg kick, a favorite tool of Borics. Expect any missed punches from Borics to become shots that drive him to the cage early on. Burnell took down both of the fighters that ended up defeating him by submission in the UFC. He doesn’t get hit often mostly because his grappling makes strikers scared to commit. He uses his level changes to drive people back, and keeps his hands high for incoming kicks and knees. In his last two fights with Sanchez and Rogers, his legs took some damage but his face took very little damage. 

Is Burnell looking past Borics?

Borics is the number one contender, but Burnell wants a shot at the title versus A.J. McKee. At the post fight at Bellator versus Emmanuel Sanchez, he talked about his future plans to take the title and that he’s training with the champion in mind. “Yes, I think I’m one of the Best in the World.. I performed very well to fight for the title.” 
Still, Burnell is confident and more than happy to engage with Borics, expecting the takedown off counter striking against anyone in the division. If Borics is counting on a knockout, he’ll have to bring new accuracy to the cage. If he’s counting on a decision, he’ll need to defend takedowns in two of three rounds. I don’t see it happening.

Bellator 276 Wrap Up

Our betting pick is Mads Burnell. He’s a better striker than even I give him credit for. His head movement is still developing as he ages and his wrestling is perfect for the Bellator featherweight division. 
Borics is a great fighter who’s now involved with a great camp, but his wrestling has to find a way to move up to a more competitive level to win fights like this one. 
If you’re still learning about MMA, start with our guide, or find the full Bellator card betting picks here

Jacob Clark / Author

Jacob Clark had a 15 year career as a professional MMA fighter, coach, and Greg Jackson’s alum. Now, TikTok’s 12th most important BJJ influencer is bringing his sports and betting knowledge to you here at TheSportsGeek. He spends his time cooking vietnamese food and playing D&D with his family. You can meet him at jiu-jitsu open mats all over Indiana.

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