Bellator 277 Main Event Pick: McKee vs Pitbull 2

We’re getting detailed on our pick for Bellator 277’s main event, McKee vs Pitbull 2. We’re looking closely at the latest odds from Bovada and the MMA stats to place our top bet on the fight, as well as pick the most lucrative prosp for those who are looking for a greater risk and reward. Place your bets before the fight on April 15th, 2022 at 10:00PM ET. 
If you’re looking for coverage of all thirteen fights with bets available, start with our full betting preview

Our Top Betting Pick for McKee vs Pitbull 2

The McKee money line is still the best value, though it’s dropped in return form -325 to -350. He’s the more consistent submission fighter, and their first bout left little room to believe that Pitbull will win the rematch. There aren’t many props to choose from, and the limited selection leaves us with mostly high risk gambles and the money line. 

Tale of the Tape for McKee vs Pitbull

Fighter Aj McKee Jr ‘Mercenary’  Patricio Freire Pitbull 
Age 27 34
Height 5’10’’ 5’6’’
Reach 73’’ 65’’
Record 18 32-5
Submissions/TKO  6/7 8/5
Fighter Training Camp Team BodyShop Pitbull Brothers 

McKee is the much larger fighter. If you look at Pitbull’s biggest wins, you’ll see names like Michael Chandler, Pedro Carvalho, and Daniel Straus. Each of these fighters give up 2-5 inches of reach and height to McKee. Fighters that have beat Pitbull include McKee, Henderson and Straus- each boasting a 70’’ reach or better. 

That size difference is apparent at weigh-ins, where McKee looks a weight class or two above his opponent. I’m not even sure Patricio Freire cuts weight to make 145 pounds, he’s the smaller man in nearly every bout. 

Betting Odds for McKee vs Pitbull at Bellator 277

Odds  Bet Bet 
Aj McKee Jr -350
Patricio Freire (Pitbull) +255
Aj McKee Finish By TKO+195 By Submission +200
Patricio Pitbull Finish  By TKO +550 By Submission +900
Will the Fight Go the Distance? Yes +230 No -360
Aj by Decision +400
Pitbull by Decision +800
Over/Under 2 ½ Rounds  Over +120 Under -160

There are no over/under bets for this fight for Bovada, but has Over Under odds.  McKee has a very high submission rate, offering him +200 on a submission win. That’s very high, especially considering he won the first fight by KO with no sign of grappling in his game plan at all. The first fight ended in the very first round. McKee’s fight history shows he only went to decision five times total, and most recently against one of the men to beat Pitbull in Pat Curran.
McKee vs Pitbull 2 betting odds should consider the last few performances of both fighters, and Pitbull hasn’t lost a fight to anyone but McKee since 2017. In these last five years, he’s seen three decisions, while McKee has seen one. For this reason, our prop bet pick is ‘Will the Fight Go the Distance? No’ at -360, a $28 per $100 wager payout. 

McKee vs Pitbull 2 MMA Breakdown 

Pitbull’s change in style played into the hands of McKee in fight one. Will Pitbull reinvent the wheel for this fight, or look for his usual sniping right hook, left cross combination? Let’s go over some key performance insites to support our Bellator 277 betting prediction. 

Pitbull’s Point Karate Style

Pitbull changed styles from a closed kickboxing stance to a bladed stance that allows him to take less damage and focus on landing bigger shots as larger fighters walk into range. It appears this stops working against fighters that have such a massive reach advantage on you. Fighters like Diego Nunes looked to land head kicks on Pitbull, but failed to do so outside of striking range. McKee was able to land from so far away that Pitbull’s timing was offset immediately. Will we see a more forward moving stance from Pitbull or will he recreate the first fight for us?

Bellator 277 Betting: McKee vs Pitbull’s First Fight 

Fight one showed McKee just out of range for the full two minute fight. He put Pitbull down early, landing significant shots from the opening moments, and secured a tight guillotine that ended the fight. Pitbull didn’t have much of a chance to get going, but if McKee hasn’t been stopped by anyone else, I think Pitbull needs to worry about winning rounds, not just finishing the fight. 

Though only parts of the fight can be seen, this highlight is a great showing of McKee working from the outside then creating angles, and Pitbull attempting to draw his opponent in. 

McKee vs Pitbull: How did they Fare Against Curran?

The fight with Pat Curran was a telling test of things to come. These fighters fought Curran five years apart, but it’s one of their few common opponents. Because of this, many say Pitbull fought the best while AJ was protected, and I’d have to agree. Specifically, Benson Henderson, Chandler and Juan Archuleta. 

Still, McKee did better against Curran in a big way. Curran was unable to find range for his flurries of strikes against McKee, and the sidekick was a very useful tool in McKee’s arsenal. Curran won a split decision over Pitbull in 2013, and highlighted many of the strengths McKee will still have over Pitbull, namely range and angles in footwork. 

McKee vs Pitbull Prediction

I see McKee doing what he can to recreate fight one, maintaining distance and landing long range shots. Pitbull may get more aggressive in the opening rounds, trying to avoid getting maimed against the fence, but this is an exhausting strategy, wading through the strikes of the bigger man. Expect a finish from McKee or a flash knockout from Pitbull late in the fight. I don’t see a decision, but if McKee so chooses, he could make a boring fight of a five rounder with Pitbull if he wants to. 

Bellator 277 McKee vs Pitbull 2 Wrap Up

If you’re thinking the McKee fight is right for a parlay ticket, consider this weekend’s Spence vs Ugas fight as well. McKee vs Pitbull 2 bets are one of the more one sided main events of the weekend. Pitbull lost the first fight so thoroughly and I’m surprised he received the immediate rematch, pointing more to Bellator’s lack of ranking fighters than his dominance as a champion. 

Jacob Clark / Author

Jacob Clark had a 15 year career as a professional MMA fighter, coach, and Greg Jackson’s alum. Now, TikTok’s 12th most important BJJ influencer is bringing his sports and betting knowledge to you here at TheSportsGeek. He spends his time cooking vietnamese food and playing D&D with his family. You can meet him at jiu-jitsu open mats all over Indiana.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.